For this last election projection, I will look at each state individually.\u00a0 Someone recently asked for my track record predicting the presidential races.\u00a0 They are pretty good, although I find this year much more difficult to predict.\u00a0 Here are my past results for the 50 states and the District of Columbia:<\/p>\n
2008: Missed 1 state (Indiana \u2013 predicted for McCain, went to Obama)<\/p>\n
2004: Missed 1 state (Ohio \u2013 predicted for Kerry, went to Bush)<\/p>\n
2000: Missed 1 or 2 states: (New Hampshire \u2013 predicted for Gore, went to Bush;
\nFlorida predicted for Gore\u2026)<\/p>\n
Bottom Line this year:\u00a0 Obama will be re-elected.<\/p>\n
Romney<\/strong> seems pretty well assured of receiving 191 electoral votes<\/strong> from these states:\u00a0 Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.<\/p>\n Obama<\/strong> seems pretty well assured of receiving 237 electoral votes<\/strong> from California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and the District of Columbia.\u00a0 (In spite of the Romney campaign making noises about and throwing late money into Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, he has little chance to win those states.\u00a0 Obama\u2019s top advisor, David Axelrod, said he would shave off his 40-year-old mustache on national television if Romney wins any 1 of those 3 states.)<\/p>\n Battleground States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Colorado \u2013 9 Electoral votes<\/span><\/p>\n This has been extremely close since the beginning, with some Florida \u2013 29 Electoral votes<\/span><\/p>\n Most polls in the past couple of weeks either have Romney with Iowa \u2013 6 electoral Votes<\/span><\/p>\n There has not been a reputable poll that has not shown an Nevada \u2013 6 Electoral votes<\/span><\/p>\n Like Iowa, there has been no real evidence of Romney New Hampshire \u2013 4 Electoral Votes<\/span><\/p>\n Another very close race, with no clear leader.\u00a0 I got this one North Carolina \u2013 15 electoral votes<\/span><\/p>\n Romney pulled ahead here after the first debate and has held Ohio \u2013 18 Electoral votes<\/span><\/p>\n As everyone probably knows, this is the state that is the one Virginia \u2013 13 Electoral votes <\/span><\/p>\n Like Colorado and New Hampshire, Virginia is too close to call. Wisconsin \u2013 10 Electoral Votes<\/span><\/p>\n Like Iowa and Nevada, polls in Wisconsin have been close, but \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n SUMMARY<\/span><\/p>\n With the projections in the 9 Battleground States, the final totals may look like:<\/p>\n Romney Safe States\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 191 Electoral Votes Romney Total\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 235 Electoral Votes<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Obama Safe States\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 237 Electoral Votes Obama Total\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 303 Electoral Votes<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Obama\u2019s base of support has held reasonably well.\u00a0 He will lose some states he won four years ago, like Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina. \u00a0The election could be closer, or Obama could win bigger.\u00a0 If Romney manages to win Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire, he would still have to win either Wisconsin or Ohio, or a combination of Iowa and Nevada to win the election. \u00a0I think it is more likely that Obama wins Colorado, Virginia and\/or New Hampshire.\u00a0 I think the scenarios favoring Romney are unlikely, but watch results from the battleground states and you will know who will win the election.\u00a0 I believe it will be President Obama.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" For this last election projection, I will look at each state individually.\u00a0 Someone recently asked for my track record predicting the presidential races.\u00a0 They are pretty good, although I find this year much more difficult to predict.\u00a0 Here are my (…)<\/p>\n
\npolls having Obama ahead, some having Romney ahead, some
\nhaving them tied, but the lead rarely more than a point or two.
\nThis is still a true toss-up, but I will go with: OBAMA<\/p>\n
\na slight lead, the race being tied, or Obama with a point or
\ntwo lead.\u00a0 However, voter suppression efforts will have done
\nenough to clinch a race that might anyway have been won by: ROMNEY<\/p>\n
\nObama lead in weeks. Although the race will not be a landslide,
\nit should be a win for: OBAMA<\/p>\n
\novertaking the President. This should be a win for: OBAMA<\/p>\n
\nwrong in 2000, and may get it wrong again, but I am going with: OBAMA<\/p>\n
\nthat lead in most polls.\u00a0 This should be fairly easy for: ROMNEY<\/p>\n
\nmost people think Romney must win if he is to win the election.
\nNo Republican has won the White House without winning
\nOhio.\u00a0 But the strength of the auto industry and legal efforts
\nto blunt Republicans\u2019 voter suppression tactics, have kept
\nObama ahead in virtually every reliable poll here for weeks.
\nAlthough the leads are not great, it seems likely that Ohio will go to: \u00a0OBAMA<\/p>\n
\nBut that won\u2019t stop me.\u00a0 Northern Virginia is Democratic,
\nSouthern Virginia is Republican.\u00a0 Polls have been very close,
\nbut I think this will be a repeat of 2008, and won by: OBAMA<\/p>\n
\nObama has been ahead here for weeks.\u00a0 There is no real reason
\nto think this won\u2019t be won by: OBAMA<\/p>\n
\nRomney Battleground States\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 44 Electoral Votes<\/span><\/p>\n
\nObama Battleground States\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 66 electoral Votes<\/span><\/p>\n