This year, there are 33 seats up for election.
\n21 are currently held by Democrats
\n10 are currently held by Republicans
\n2 are held by independents who caucus with the Democrats: Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Joe Lieberman in Connecticut (Lieberman is retiring).<\/p>\n
The remaining seats divide as follows:\u00a0 30 Democrats and 37 Republicans.<\/p>\n
Democrats need to win 21 seats to have a majority.\u00a0 Republicans need to win 14 seats to have a majority (one less in each case if they have the Vice Presidency).<\/p>\n
Here is how the 33 seats shape up:<\/p>\n
Safe\/Very Likely Democratic (16)<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Safe\/Very Likely Republican (5)<\/span><\/p>\n California (Dianne Feinstein)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Mississippi (Roger Wicker)<\/p>\n Delaware (Tom Carper)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Tennessee (Bob Corker)<\/p>\n Florida (Bill Nelson)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Texas (Ted Cruz)<\/p>\n Hawaii (Mazie Hirono)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Utah (Orrin Hatch)<\/p>\n Maine (Angus King)*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Wyoming (John Barrasso)<\/p>\n Maryland (Ben Cardin)<\/p>\n Michigan (Debbie Stabenow)<\/p>\n Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar)<\/p>\n New Jersey (Robert Menendez)<\/p>\n New Mexico (Martin Heinrich)<\/p>\n New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)<\/p>\n Pennsylvania (Bob Casey)<\/p>\n Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse)<\/p>\n Vermont (Bernie Sanders)*<\/p>\n Washington (Maria Cantwell)<\/p>\n West Virginia (Joe Manchin)<\/p>\n *Independents caucus with Democrats<\/p>\n <\/p>\n 12\u00a0 Contested Seats<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Arizona – Open Seat, currently held by Republican John Kyl<\/span><\/p>\n Earlier in the fall, this looked like a sure win for Republican Jeff Flake, but the changing demographics of Arizona has helped make this a contest that Democrat Richard Carmona might just win; but Flake seems to be surging at the end and it is hard to bet against Republicans in Arizona. So, with less trepidation than I would have had a few days ago:<\/p>\n Prediction:\u00a0 REPUBLICAN FLAKE HOLDS SEAT <\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Connecticut \u2013 Open Seat, currently held by Joe Lieberman<\/span><\/p>\n For a long time, it looked like Republican Linda McMahon had a real shot at this seat.\u00a0 However, in recent weeks, Democrat Chris Murphy has opened up a lead.<\/p>\n Prediction:\u00a0 DEMOCRAT MURPHY HOLDS SEAT <\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Indiana \u2013 Open Seat, currently held by Republican Richard Lugar<\/span><\/p>\n Tea Partier Richard Mourdock defeated long-time Senator Richard Lugar in the primary.\u00a0 As you may know, in a recent debate, Mourdock said that a pregnancy resulting from rape was \u201cGod\u2019s will.\u201d\u00a0 Democrats and Joe Donnelly were very glad he said this.<\/p>\n Prediction: JOE DONNELLY PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Massachusetts \u2013 Scott Brown, Republican incumbent<\/span><\/p>\n This had been a very close election, and in some ways still is.\u00a0 However, most reliable (and some not so reliable) polls in the past few weeks have given Democrat Elizabeth Warren a slight lead.<\/p>\n Prediction:\u00a0 ELIZABETH WARREN PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Missouri<\/span> \u2013Claire McCaskill, Democrat incumbent<\/span><\/p>\n Todd Akin was the Republican who Claire McCaskill wanted to run against.\u00a0 At first, this still looked like a good bet for a Republican pick up.\u00a0 However, after Akin talked about \u201clegitimate rape\u201d and how a woman can magically will her body to not get pregnant when raped, McCaskill looked very smart.<\/p>\n Prediction:\u00a0 MCCASKILL HOLDS SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Montana<\/span> \u2013 Jon Tester, Democrat Incumbent<\/span><\/p>\n This is probably the most difficult Senate seat to predict.\u00a0 However, even a usually Republican-leaning pollster recently had Tester ahead by 1% over Republican Denny Rehberg.\u00a0 I am tossing a coin.<\/p>\n Prediction:\u00a0 DEMOCRAT TESTER HOLDS SEAT<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Nebraska \u2013 Open Seat, currently held by Democrat Ben Nelson<\/span><\/p>\n For the longest time, this looked like the surest thing for a Republican pick-up.\u00a0 Recently, however, there seems to be rumblings that former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey has made this into a race.\u00a0 But even if true, it seems to be too little, too late.<\/p>\n Prediction:\u00a0 DEB FISCHER PICKS UP SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Nevada \u2013 Dean Heller, Republican incumbent<\/span><\/p>\n Early on, this looked like a good chance for a Democratic pick-up.\u00a0 However, a House ethics investigation of Democrat Shelley Berkley has turned this into a pretty easy win for Heller.<\/p>\n Prediction:\u00a0 REPUBLICAN HELLER HOLDS SEAT<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n North Dakota \u2013 Open seat, currently held by Democrat Kent Conrad<\/span><\/p>\n Democrat Heidi Heitkamp has turned this into a potentially tight contest, but it seems doubtful she can overcome Rick Berg\u2019s lead, but she could surprise us.<\/p>\n Prediction:\u00a0 BERG PICKS UP SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Ohio \u2013 Sherrod Brown, Democratic incumbent<\/span><\/p>\n Republicans had targeted this seat, but Brown has held a steady lead for some time.<\/p>\n Prediction:\u00a0 DEMOCRAT BROWN HOLDS SEAT<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Virginia \u2013 Open seat; currently held by Democrat Jim Webb<\/span><\/p>\n This is another extremely close and definite toss-up election between Republican, former Senator George Allen and Democrat, former Governor Tim Kaine. \u00a0Polls have had this very close since the beginning, although most reliable ones in recent days give Kaine a slight edge.<\/p>\n Prediction:\u00a0 DEMOCRAT KAINE HOLDS SEAT<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Wisconsin – Open seat, currently held by Democrat Herb Kohl<\/span><\/p>\n This is the race between former Governor Tommy Thompson and Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin.\u00a0 If elected, Baldwin would be the first openly Lesbian member of the U.S. Senate.\u00a0 As you would expect in today\u2019s Wisconsin, this has been another very close race.\u00a0 It appears that Baldwin may have a slight edge, but it is hard to assess how much support she may lose because of homophobia.\u00a0 Nonetheless\u2026<\/p>\n Prediction:\u00a0 BALDWIN<\/strong> HOLDS SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n FINAL PREDICTED TOTALS<\/span><\/p>\n Democrats win 22 seats Senate will have: This gives Democrats an effective 54-46 majority.\u00a0 Even in the unlikely event that Republicans win Indiana, Montana, Virginia and Wisconsin, Democrats will still hold a majority because of the Vice-President\u2019s tie-breaking vote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" This year, there are 33 seats up for election. 21 are currently held by Democrats 10 are currently held by Republicans 2 are held by independents who caucus with the Democrats: Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Joe Lieberman in Connecticut (…)<\/p>\n
\nRepublicans win 9 seats
\nIndependents win 2 seats (and caucus with Democrats)<\/p>\n
\n52 Democrats
\n46 Republicans
\n2 Independents (who caucus with Democrats)<\/p>\n