{"id":24,"date":"2014-11-04T11:00:21","date_gmt":"2014-11-04T11:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/?p=24"},"modified":"2015-01-28T22:46:45","modified_gmt":"2015-01-28T22:46:45","slug":"u-s-senate-campaigns-fearless-forecasts-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/?p=24","title":{"rendered":"U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGNS: Fearless Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"

This year, there are 33 seats up for election (there are other safe Republican seats up because of retirements, but this note only deals with the regular 33).<\/p>\n

20 are currently held by Democrats
\n13 are currently held by Republicans<\/p>\n

The remaining seats divide as follows:\u00a0 33 Democrats and 32 Republicans and 2 Independents, who caucus with the Democrats.<\/p>\n

Democrats need to win 15 seats to maintain a majority, including the Vice President as a tie-breaker in a 50-50 split.\u00a0 Republicans need to win 19 seats to have a majority.<\/p>\n

Here is how the 33 seats shape up:<\/p>\n

Safe\/Very Likely Democratic (11)<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Safe\/Very Likely Republican (16)<\/span><\/p>\n

Delaware\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Alabama<\/p>\n

Illinois\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Alaska*<\/p>\n

Massachusetts\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Arkansas*<\/p>\n

Michigan\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Idaho<\/p>\n

Minnesota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Louisiana<\/p>\n

New Hampshire\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Maine<\/p>\n

New Jersey\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Mississippi<\/p>\n

New Mexico\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Montana*<\/p>\n

Oregon\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Nebraska<\/p>\n

Rhode Island\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Oklahoma<\/p>\n

Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 South Carolina<\/p>\n

South Dakota*<\/p>\n

Tennessee<\/p>\n

Texas<\/p>\n

West Virginia*<\/p>\n

Wyoming<\/p>\n

*Indicates change of party winning seat<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

6\u00a0 Contested Seats<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Colorado<\/span><\/p>\n

Cory Gardner\u00a0(Rep) vs. Mark Udall (Inc. \u2013 Dem)<\/p>\n

Gardner\u00a0has been running ahead for a long time.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 REPUBLICAN GARDNER\u00a0TAKES SEAT <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Georgia<\/span><\/p>\n

A close race where Republican David Perdue is now running slightly ahead of Democrat Michelle Nunn.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 PERDUE HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Iowa<\/span><\/p>\n

Perhaps the closest race in the country, between Republican Tea Partier Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley.\u00a0 In spite of being generally pessimistic this year:<\/p>\n

Prediction: BRALEY HOLDS SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Kansas<\/span><\/p>\n

Incumbent Republican Pat Roberts vs. Independent Republican Greg Orman has been very close for weeks, but I find it hard to believe that Roberts won\u2019t win.\u00a0 Even if Orman wins, he says he will caucus with the majority party, which in the next Senate will probably be Republicans.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 ROBERTS HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Kentucky<\/span><\/p>\n

Democrats\u2019 dreams of defeating Mitch McConnell with Alison Grimes are just that.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 MCCONNELL HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

North Carolina<\/span><\/p>\n

This is another very difficult race to predict between Incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis, but being an optimist:<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 DEMOCRAT HAGAN HOLDS SEAT<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

FINAL PREDICTED TOTALS<\/span><\/p>\n

Democrats win 13 seats
\nRepublicans win 20 seats<\/p>\n

Senate will have:
\n46 Democrats
\n52 Republicans
\n2 Independents (who caucus with Democrats)<\/p>\n

This makes for an effective total of 48 Democrats and 52 Republicans. (But it could be as much as 54-46).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This year, there are 33 seats up for election (there are other safe Republican seats up because of retirements, but this note only deals with the regular 33). 20 are currently held by Democrats 13 are currently held by Republicans (…)<\/p>\n

Read the rest of this entry »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24\/revisions\/30"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}