{"id":43,"date":"2016-11-03T14:33:43","date_gmt":"2016-11-03T14:33:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/?p=43"},"modified":"2016-11-03T14:33:43","modified_gmt":"2016-11-03T14:33:43","slug":"senate-2016-fearless-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/?p=43","title":{"rendered":"Senate 2016 – Fearless Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"

U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGNS<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

November 8, 2016 \u2013 Fearless Forecasts<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

This year, there are 34 seats up for election.
\n10 are currently held by Democrats
\n24 are currently held by Republicans<\/p>\n

The remaining seats divide as follows:\u00a0 36 Democrats (and Independents who caucus with the Democrats) and 30 Republicans.<\/p>\n

Democrats need to win 14 seats to have a majority if Clinton-Kaine win.\u00a0 Republicans need to win 21 seats to have a majority (20 if they have the Vice Presidency).<\/p>\n

Here is how the 34 seats shape up:<\/p>\n

Safe\/Very Likely Democratic (10)<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Safe\/Very Likely Republican (16)<\/span><\/p>\n

California (Kamala Harris)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Alabama (Richard Shelby)<\/p>\n

Colorado (Michael Bennett)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)<\/p>\n

Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Arizona (John McCain)<\/p>\n

Hawaii (Brian Schatz)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 John Boozman (Arkansas)<\/p>\n

*Tammy Duckworth (Illinois)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Johnny Isakson (Georgia)<\/p>\n

Maryland (Chris Van Hollen)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Idaho (Mike Crapo)<\/p>\n

New York (Chuck Schumer)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Iowa (Chick Grassley)<\/p>\n

Oregon (Ron Wyden)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 Kansas (Jerry Moran)<\/p>\n

Vermont (Patrick Leahy)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kentucky (Rand Paul)<\/p>\n

Washington (Patty Murray)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Louisiana (primary 11\/8)<\/p>\n

North Dakota (John Hoeven)<\/p>\n

Ohio (Rob Portman)<\/p>\n

Oklahoma (James Lankford)<\/p>\n

South Carolina (Tim Scott)<\/p>\n

South Dakota (John Thune)<\/p>\n

Utah (Mike Lee)<\/p>\n

*Pick up of Republican held seat<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

8\u00a0 Contested Seats:\u00a0 7 currently Republican, 1 currently Democratic<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Florida – Marco Rubio, Republican incumbentl<\/span><\/p>\n

When Rubio wasn’t running, this looked like a sure bet for the Democrats.\u00a0 Although this is still close, and a good Democratic turnout could result in an upset, it will be tough for the Democrats.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 REPUBLICAN RUBIO HOLDS SEAT <\/strong><\/p>\n

Indiana \u2013 Open Seat, currently held by Republican Dan Coats<\/span><\/p>\n

Former Senator Evan Bayh has come out of retirement to try and return to the Senate.\u00a0 For a long time this looked like an easy Democratic win.\u00a0 Apparently, the Bayh campaign has left something to be desired and this is now very close.\u00a0 Even though this is a red state, Bayh probably needs to win for the Democrats to take over the Senate.<\/p>\n

Prediction: EVAN BAYH PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Missouri \u2013 Ray Blunt, Republican incumbent<\/span><\/p>\n

Although this is another close race, most polling over the last month has Blunt with a slight lead.\u00a0 With Trump carrying Missouri, this will probably hold.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 REPUBLICAN BLUNT HOLDS SEAT <\/strong><\/p>\n

Nevada \u2013 Open Seat, currently held by Democrat Harry Reid<\/span><\/p>\n

This is the only seat the Democrats are defending and it could look better.\u00a0 Polls have been all over the place.\u00a0 Turnout will be everything, even more so than in many other races.\u00a0 Most recent polls show a surge for the Republican.<\/p>\n

Prediction: \u00a0JOE HECK PICKS UP SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n

New Hampshire \u2013 Kelley Ayotte, Republican incumbent<\/span><\/p>\n

Another tight one.\u00a0 Most recent polls, except one, have Ayotte ahead.\u00a0 She has helped herself by disavowing Trump.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 REPUBLICAN AYOTTE HOLDS SEAT<\/strong><\/p>\n

North Carolina \u2013 Richard Burr, Republican incumbent<\/span><\/p>\n

Although this is another close race, like Missouri, most polling over the last month has Burr with a slight lead.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 REPUBLICAN BURR HOLDS SEAT<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pennsylvania \u2013 Pat Toomey, Republican incumbent<\/span><\/p>\n

This seat has been high on the Democrats’ list, and for good reason.\u00a0 Katie McGinty has led all through the fall.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 DEMOCRAT MCGINTY PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wisconsin – Republican Ron Johnson, Incumbent<\/span><\/p>\n

Democrats were devastated when Russ Feingold lost his bid for re-election in 2010.\u00a0 But he is back this year and has led all fall.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 DEMOCRAT FEINGOLD PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS<\/strong>
\nFINAL PREDICTED TOTALS<\/span><\/p>\n

Democrats win 13 seats
\nRepublicans win 21 seats<\/p>\n

Senate will have:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 49 Democrats
\n51 Republicans<\/p>\n

This gives Republicans the continued ability to block everything Clinton wants to do, including appointing a ninth U.S. Supreme Court Justice.<\/p>\n

If you are looking for opportunities for the Democrats to get that one extra Senate seat, pay particularly close attention to Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGNS November 8, 2016 \u2013 Fearless Forecasts This year, there are 34 seats up for election. 10 are currently held by Democrats 24 are currently held by Republicans The remaining seats divide as follows:\u00a0 36 Democrats (and Independents (…)<\/p>\n

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