{"id":46,"date":"2016-11-03T14:45:25","date_gmt":"2016-11-03T14:45:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/?p=46"},"modified":"2016-11-03T14:45:25","modified_gmt":"2016-11-03T14:45:25","slug":"fearless-forecast-2016-presidential-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/?p=46","title":{"rendered":"Fearless Forecast &#8211; 2016 Presidential Election"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">November 8, 2016:\u00a0 Fearless Forecasts<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 For this year&#8217;s election projection, I will look at each state individually.\u00a0 Someone recently asked for my track record predicting the presidential races.\u00a0 It is pretty good, although I find this year much more difficult to predict the swing or toss-up states.\u00a0 Here are my past results for the 50 states and the District of Columbia:<\/p>\n<p>2012: Missed 1 state (Florida &#8211; predicted for Romney, went to Obama)<\/p>\n<p>2008: Missed 1 state (Indiana \u2013 predicted for McCain, went to Obama)<\/p>\n<p>2004: Missed 1 state (Ohio \u2013 predicted for Kerry, went to Bush)<\/p>\n<p>2000: Missed 1 or 2 states: (New Hampshire \u2013 predicted for Gore, went to<br \/>\nBush; Florida predicted for Gore\u2026)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bottom Line this year:\u00a0 Hillary Clinton will be elected.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>Trump<\/strong> seems fairly well assured of receiving <strong>159 electoral votes<\/strong> from these states:\u00a0 Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming.\u00a0 (Note: There is one Maine Congressional District that will probably give its one electoral vote to Trump.)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Clinton<\/strong> seems fairly well assured of receiving enough votes for victory even without winning any toss-up states, with <strong>272 electoral votes<\/strong> from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia. \u00a0(Note: There is one Maine Congressional District that will probably give its one electoral vote to Trump, leaving Clinton with 3 of the 4 electoral votes from Maine.)<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Battleground States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Arizona &#8211; 11 Electoral Votes<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Clinton has made a race of this, but I only see her<br \/>\nwinning if this becomes a real landslide, and thanks<br \/>\nto James Comey, that will not happen.\u00a0 Arizona will go to:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 TRUMP<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Florida \u2013 29 Electoral votes<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Very close.\u00a0 If Trump does not win here, even if he manages<br \/>\nto flip some states where he now trails, he still won&#8217;t win.<br \/>\nEarly voting clearly breaking for Clinton.\u00a0 This will be tight,<br \/>\nbut it will go to:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 CLINTON<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Georgia &#8211; 16 Electoral votes<\/span><\/p>\n<p>This is a battleground that either one could win?\u00a0 Hardly.<br \/>\nSeems very likely to be a state for:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 TRUMP<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Iowa \u2013 6 electoral Votes<\/span><\/p>\n<p>No reputable poll has shown anything but a Trump lead<br \/>\nin a long time. \u00a0Although the race will not be a landslide,<br \/>\nit should be a win for:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 TRUMP<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Nevada \u2013 6 Electoral votes<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Some recent polls show Trump ahead, but I think the<br \/>\ncombination of a strong ground organization and a<br \/>\nsignificant Latino population will give Nevada to:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CLINTON<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">North Carolina \u2013 15 electoral votes<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Touch and go for both candidates, but it is still the South<br \/>\nand therefore will go to:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 TRUMP<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Ohio \u2013 18 Electoral votes<\/span><\/p>\n<p>As everyone probably knows, no Republican has won the<br \/>\nWhite House without winning Ohio.\u00a0 He won&#8217;t win the<br \/>\nelection, but Ohio will go to:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 TRUMP<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Utah \u2013 6 Electoral Votes<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Independent Evan McMullin might squeak past Trump<br \/>\nhere, but probably not::\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 TRUMP<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">SUMMARY<\/span><\/p>\n<p>With the projections in the 10 Battleground States, the final totals may look like:<\/p>\n<p>Trump Safe States\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 159 Electoral Votes<br \/>\nTrump Battleground States\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u00a0 72 Electoral Votes<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Trump Total\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 231 Electoral Votes<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Clinton Safe States\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 272 Electoral Votes<br \/>\nClinton Battleground States\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u00a0 35 electoral Votes<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Clinton Total\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 307 Electoral Votes<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>If not for James Comey&#8217;s ill-advised and poorly-timed (and possibly illegal) letter to Congress, Clinton would have won more easily, with an especially greater chance in North Carolina and Ohio.\u00a0 Of course, if between the time I write this and election day, there is some resolution to the emails on Anthony Weiner&#8217;s computer, things could change, one way or the other.\u00a0 But based on the vast number of emails to be examined, that seems unlikely.\u00a0 Although one should never underestimate the lengths that Republicans will go to prevent a Hillary Clinton presidency, I nevertheless believe we will have our first woman President on January 20, 2017.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN November 8, 2016:\u00a0 Fearless Forecasts \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 For this year&#8217;s election projection, I will look at each state individually.\u00a0 Someone recently asked for my track record predicting the presidential races.\u00a0 It is pretty good, although I find this year (&hellip;)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/?p=46\">Read the rest of this entry &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=46"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46\/revisions\/51"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=46"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=46"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=46"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}