{"id":58,"date":"2018-11-01T17:58:45","date_gmt":"2018-11-01T17:58:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/?p=58"},"modified":"2018-11-01T17:58:45","modified_gmt":"2018-11-01T17:58:45","slug":"november-2018-fearless-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/?p=58","title":{"rendered":"November 2018 – Fearless Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

November 6, 2018 \u2013 Fearless Forecasts<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

We begin with 2 thoughts that seem to be appropriate in 2018.<\/p>\n

\u201c…you can fool some of the people all of the time\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n

–Attributed to Abraham Lincoln<\/p>\n

“There’s a sucker born every minute.”<\/p>\n

–Attributed to P.T. Barnum<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

One Important Note:<\/u><\/p>\n

Everything is moving very fast in so many races every day, it becomes very difficult to accurately gauge what will happen on Election Day.\u00a0 And after the debacle of 2016, only a fool would try to predict the outcome of this year’s elections.\u00a0 So here goes:<\/p>\n

Let’s start with the good news.<\/p>\n

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Admittedly, I have not looked at these races on an individual, race-by-race basis.\u00a0 However, all indications point to the Democrats taking control of the House.\u00a0 While the Brett Kavanaugh hearings seemed to energize Trump’s core supporters, this seems to have become undone by the events of the last week – i.e., the Florida mail bomber and the maniac who killed 11 people at the Pittsburgh synagogue.\u00a0 Many people were reminded of the damage that Trump has been doing to our country.<\/p>\n

Democratic control of the House may not be by much (or it may), but even a one vote majority is enough to stop some of the more terrible things the current administration will try to foist upon this country.\u00a0 And it will allow the Congress to do its job and begin investigating the rampant corruption (starting with the crook-in-chief).<\/p>\n

GOVERNORS<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

36 of the 50 states are electing their governors in November.\u00a0 While most will either re-elect sitting governors or install new governors from the same party as now, there are 11 contests where a current Republican governorship may become Democratic.\u00a0 There does not appear to be any contest where the reverse is true (Democratic changing to Republican), although Independent and former Republican Bill Walker may be replaced by Republican Mike Dunleavy in Alaska.\u00a0 These elections are especially important as reapportionment will occur after the 2020 census and the party in power gerrymanders its way to success in Congressional and legislative elections.<\/p>\n

At least 7 of the 11 contested elections will be close, as follows:<\/p>\n

Florida:<\/u>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Hottest race in the country.\u00a0 African-American Democratic Mayor Andrew Gillum vs. big time Trump supporter former Congressman Ron DeSantis.\u00a0 If there is no or minimal hidden racist vote, Gillum will win for the Democrats. (I think he will.)<\/p>\n

Georgia:<\/u>\u00a0\u00a0 African-American Democratic legislator Stacey Abrams vs. Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp.\u00a0 Massive voter suppression efforts by Kemp and Republicans may help Kemp retain this seat for the Republicans, but race could go either way.<\/p>\n

Illinois:<\/u>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Slam dunk win for Democrat J.B. Pritzker.<\/p>\n

Iowa:<\/u>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Democrat Fred Hubbell will unseat Republican incumbent Kim Reynolds.<\/p>\n

Kansas:<\/u>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Third candidate in the race gives Democrats a chance to defeat anti-immigrant (and undoubtedly racist) Kris Kobach in Alf Landon’s home state.\u00a0 Unfortunately, Kansas is still soooo Republican, Kobach probably will win; but polling has it VERY close.<\/p>\n

Maine:<\/u>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 There has been very little polling in this race, but Democratic Attorney General Janet Mills should have little problem defeating Republican businessman Shawn Moody to replace Incumbent and extremely conservative Republican Paul Lepage.<\/p>\n

Michigan:<\/u>\u00a0 Democratic State Senator Gretchen Whitmer should defeat Republican Bill Schuette.<\/p>\n

Nevada:<\/u>\u00a0\u00a0 Democrat Steve Sisolak has a chance to beat someone with a big family name in Nevada politics, State Attorney General Adam Paul Laxalt, but it will be tough.\u00a0 Laxalt uses his middle name because it is the same as his grandfather’s first name (former U.S. Senator Paul Laxalt).\u00a0 Republican may have a slight edge.<\/p>\n

New Mexico:<\/u> In a contest between two members of Congress, Democrat Michelle Lujan
\nGrisham should be an easy winner over Republican Steve Pearce.<\/p>\n

Ohio:<\/u>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Close contest but Democrat Richard Cordray, former Director of the Federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau seems to have a very good chance to defeat former U.S. Senator, Republican Mike DeWine.\u00a0 Despite Ohio’s recent history, I think the Democrat will squeak this one out.<\/p>\n

Wisconsin:<\/u>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Tea Party and now long-time Governor Scott Walker faces a tough
\nchallenge from Democrat Tony Evers, State Superintendent of Public
\nInstruction.\u00a0 There has not been a lot of polling done here. \u00a0I’m hoping
\nthat Wisconsin voters have\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 finally had enough of Walker. I believe (hope?)
\nEvers will win.<\/p>\n

In summary, I think Democrats may flip as many as 8 of these governorships out of the hands of Republicans.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGNS<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Now, for the not-so-good news.<\/p>\n

This year, there are 35 seats up for election.<\/p>\n

24 are currently held by Democrats<\/p>\n

9 are currently held by Republicans<\/p>\n

2 are held by independents who caucus with the Democrats: Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Angus King in Maine.<\/p>\n

The remaining seats divide as follows:\u00a0 23 Democrats and 42 Republicans.<\/p>\n

Here is how the 35 seats shape up:<\/p>\n

Safe\/Very Likely Democratic (21)<\/u>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Safe\/Very Likely Republican (7)<\/u><\/p>\n

California (Dianne Feinstein)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Mississippi (Roger Wicker)<\/p>\n

Connecticut (Chris Murphy)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Mississippi 2 (Cindy Hyde-Smith)<\/p>\n

Delaware (Tom Carper)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Nebraska (Deb Fischer)<\/p>\n

Hawaii (Mazie Hirono)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 North Dakota (Kevin Cramer)<\/p>\n

Maine (Angus King)*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *Texas (Ted Cruz)<\/p>\n

Maryland (Ben Cardin)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Utah (Mitt Romney)<\/p>\n

Massachusetts (Elizabeth Warren)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Wyoming (John Barrasso)<\/p>\n

Michigan (Debbie Stabenow)<\/p>\n

Minnesota 1 (Amy Klobuchar)<\/p>\n

Minnesota 2 (Tim Smith)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *Democrats are excited about<\/p>\n

New Jersey (Robert Menendez)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Beto O’Rourke in Texas, but no<\/p>\n

New Mexico (Martin Heinrich)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 poll has had him closer than 5 or<\/p>\n

New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6 points in weeks.<\/p>\n

Ohio (Sherrod Brown)<\/p>\n

Pennsylvania (Bob Casey)<\/p>\n

Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse)<\/p>\n

Vermont (Bernie Sanders)*<\/p>\n

Virginia (Tim Kaine)<\/p>\n

Washington (Maria Cantwell)<\/p>\n

West Virginia (Joe Manchin)<\/p>\n

Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin)<\/p>\n

*Independents caucus with Democrats<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

7\u00a0 Contested Seats<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Arizona – Open Seat, currently held by Republican Jeff Flake<\/u><\/p>\n

Currently held by frequent Trump critic (but also someone who usually votes with Trump), Jeff Flake, this may be the best chance for the Democrats to capture a Republican seat.\u00a0 Eventually, the changing demographics of Arizona will give Democrats a breakthrough.\u00a0 I think this is the year:<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 KYRSTEN SINEMA PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Florida \u2013 Bill Nelson, Democratic incumbent<\/u><\/p>\n

Another very close election, with Governor Rick Scott the Republican candidate.\u00a0 Most recent polling gives Nelson a very slight edge.\u00a0 Who am I to disagree?<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 NELSON HOLDS SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Indiana \u2013 Joe Donnelly, Democratic incumbent<\/u><\/p>\n

Six years ago, Donnelly won this seat when Republicans nominated an extreme \u201ctea party\u201d candidate.\u00a0 But Indiana is a very red state.<\/p>\n

Prediction: MIKE BRAUN PICKS UP SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Missouri \u2013Claire McCaskill, Democrat incumbent<\/u><\/p>\n

As was the case six years ago, McCaskill will have a very tough time holding onto her seat in another red state.\u00a0 This is another one that is VERY CLOSE.\u00a0 This prediction comes with a lot of hope.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 DEMOCRAT MCCASKILL HOLDS SEAT<\/strong><\/p>\n

Montana \u2013 Jon Tester, Democrat Incumbent<\/u><\/p>\n

This is the seat that Trump has targeted as the one he most wants the Republicans to win.\u00a0 But Montana is an unusual state \u2013 very red in presidential elections, but more volatile in other statewide contests.\u00a0 However, on Halloween, Libertarian candidate Rick Breckenridge dropped out of the race and endorsed strong Trump supporter, Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale.\u00a0 This could change everything, or nothing.\u00a0 For now, I will stick with my initial thoughts on this race.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 DEMOCRAT TESTER HOLDS SEAT<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nevada \u2013 Dean Heller, Republican incumbent<\/u><\/p>\n

Early on, this looked like a good chance for a Democratic pick-up for Congresswoman Jacky Rosen.\u00a0 It is still possible.\u00a0 It should be close.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 REPUBLICAN HELLER HOLDS SEAT<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tennessee \u2013 Open Seat, currently held by Republican Bob Corker<\/u><\/p>\n

In another very red state, Democrats are hoping for an upset.\u00a0 Republicans have nominated a very right-wing Trumpite, Marsha Blackburn.\u00a0 Democrats have the popular former governor, Phil Bredesen.\u00a0 This one should be closer than most Tennessee elections.<\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0 BLACKBURN HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

FINAL PREDICTED TOTALS<\/u><\/p>\n

Democrats win 23 seats<\/p>\n

Republicans win 11 seats<\/p>\n

Independents win 2 seats (and caucus with Democrats)<\/p>\n

Senate will have:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 46 Democrats<\/p>\n

52 Republicans<\/p>\n

2 Independents (who caucus with Democrats)<\/p>\n

This gives Republicans an effective 52-48 majority, one better than what they have today.\u00a0 Even in the unlikely event that Democrats win Nevada and Tennessee, Republicans will still hold a majority because of the Vice-President\u2019s tie-breaking vote.\u00a0 But considering that Democrats had so many, and Republicans had so few seats to defend, maintaining the status quo is not too bad a result.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 November 6, 2018 \u2013 Fearless Forecasts \u00a0 We begin with 2 thoughts that seem to be appropriate in 2018. \u201c…you can fool some of the people all of the time\u2026\u201d –Attributed to Abraham Lincoln “There’s a sucker born every (…)<\/p>\n

Read the rest of this entry »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=58"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":59,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58\/revisions\/59"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=58"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=58"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/politicalbluegene.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=58"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}