U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGNS
November 8, 2022 – Fearless Forecasts
I have been very reluctant to make any sort of predictions this year because I do not know which polling firms are reliable and which are not. As cell phones have become ubiquitous, the longtime methodology of conducting polls exclusively via telephone has disappeared. Cell phones allow the potential participant to screen calls and not answer calls coming from numbers with which they are not familiar. Many people do this , including myself.
To attempt to overcome this call screening, the accuracy of all polls rely very heavily on how the pollster decides to weight the data. That is, what proportions of the electorate to assign to each voting group. For example, should women under 35 make up 3%, 5%, 10% of the electorate? The pollster’s analysis and biases may affect these kinds of judgements and therefore, the results of the poll. And sometimes, a poll may have put a weighting factor on a group or groups of voters based on very few actual voter surveys.
Pollsters use texting and emails to reach people who are unreachable by phone. Many of these people are as reluctant to answer a text or email as they are to answer their phones. Plus, when you add in the fact that many people do not trust or do not want to assist the pollsters, it makes it very difficult to assess the reliability of any individual poll or polling firm.
As an example, we can look at the historically very reliable Des Moines Register poll (perhaps the most reliable in the country for a state). A few weeks ago, their poll had a very surprising lead for Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of just 3%. Suddenly, Democrats had flights of fancy that they had a chance to flip this seat. A few days ago, the latest Des Moines Register poll came out with an unsurprising lead for Grassley of 12%. I will be shocked if the 12% is not closer to the actual results.
All of these factors have made me reluctant to make predictions about this year’s Senate races. Nonetheless, I will do so anyway, and probably be wrong in a lot of races:
This year, there are 35 seats up for election.
14 are currently held by Democrats
21 are currently held by Republicans
Democrats need to win 14 seats to maintain a majority, including the Vice President as a tie-breaker in a 50-50 split. Republicans need to win 22 seats to have a majority.
Here is how the 35 seats shape up:
Safe/Very Likely Democratic (10)
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
New York
Oregon
Vermont
Washington
Safe/Very Likely Republican (16)
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Florida
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Missouri
North Dakota
Oklahoma (2 seats)
South Carolina
South Dakota
Contested Seats: Predictions
As noted above, these predictions are made with very little confidence:
Arizona: Kelly holds seat for Dems
Georgia: Warnock holds seat for Dems (or maybe not?)
Nevada: Laxalt wins seat for Republicans (change of party holding seat)
New Hampshire: Hassan holds seat for Democrats
Ohio: Vance holds seat for Republicans
Pennsylvania: Fetterman wins seat for Democrats (change of party holding seat)
Utah: Lee holds seat for Republicans
Wisconsin: Johnson holds seat for Republicans
FINAL PREDICTED TOTALS
Democrats win 14 seats
Republicans win 21 seats
If these predictions are correct, we will continue to have the same 50-50 split as we have had since the last election, with the Vice President holding the tiebreaking vote. However, if the Democrats lose one of the 3 seats they are predicted to win, or if Fetterman does not defeat Oz, the country will be even worse off than if only the House of Representatives becomes Republican. And that’s pretty awful.
Whither the Filibuster
by admingene on March 9, 2021
March 9, 2021
Whither the Filibuster
Since the early days of our country’s existence, the filibuster has existed in one form or another. For most of that time, it was rarely used. Starting in 1917, Senate rules required a two-thirds vote of those senators voting to end debate (known as invoking cloture). After some changes along the way, in 1975 the rules were changed to require 60 votes of all senators to invoke cloture and end debate. In 2013 and 2017, some nominations were excluded from the threat of filibuster.
In 1970, another change was made that has had a more significant effect on legislation than simply changing the number of votes needed for cloture. Until 1970, the Senate could only take up one item at a time. For anyone who has seen Frank Capra’s film, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, the climactic scene has Jimmy Stewart preventing the Senate from taking up any business as long as he kept talking. With 1970’s new, two-track system, the Senate could continue to debate and take action on more than one item at a time. This eliminated the need for senators to actually hold the floor and keep talking for a filibuster to be effective.
This brings us to today and the current debate among Democrats about whether or not to end the filibuster completely or at least expand the kinds of votes that are not subject to the filibuster. (We must remember that these are Senate rules and are not subject to House votes or Presidential vetoes.)
I have always been opposed to ending the filibuster on the theory that whenever the other party gains control of both houses of Congress and the presidency, they can easily undo the legislation your side was so proud to pass. But times have changed.
The Republican Party has morphed from a party with ideas (whether good or bad is open to interpretation), into a party of ‘no”:
- “No” to fighting racism, systemic or otherwise
- “No” to improving health care
- “No” to fighting climate change and protecting our environment
- “No” to tackling immigration issues in a fair and just manner
- “No” to believing in science
- “No” to telling the truth
- In short, “No” to most legislation that might improve most people’s lives
At the same time, Republicans in the Congress have remained united with one goal during the Obama years and now as the Biden years begin: prevent the Democrats from passing any legislation and giving the country the opportunity to make progress in so many areas. In other words, if the Democrats propose something, Republicans oppose it, even those Republicans who may have supported the same or a similar proposal when there was a Republican president.
We have become a federal government that now operates similar to the parliamentary form of government seen in most democracies. In those countries, because their citizens vote for a party and not necessarily an individual, they automatically get a leader (usually called the Prime Minister) who is of the same party as the majority of their legislative body, or parliament. Thus, the party in power can enact its program as it controls both the executive and legislative branches. In the U.S., little gets done if the parties in control of the presidency and either house of Congress differ. And in the current environment we end up with the Republicans’ 21st Century M.O. – oppose everything the Democratic president wants to do so they (the Republicans) can say what a terrible president he is since nothing gets done. Ergo, to get legislation passed, the legislative and executive branches must be from the same party.
Due to the budget reconciliation process, we have just seen with Biden’s American Rescue Plan how the country can prosper when a simple majority is in effect. He tried to work with the Republicans, but even the proposal from the small group of Republicans who met with him could not be taken seriously, coming in at less than one-third of his plan and omitting aid in many areas.
At this point, it seems unlikely that all Senate Democrats will support a complete elimination of the filibuster. However, as has been done in the past, new rules could be fashioned for certain types of legislation, such as protecting voting rights, without completely eliminating the filibuster. Implementing the simple majority vote will give Democrats the advantage inherent in the parliamentary system. It may be that only this action will allow the Democrats to move the country forward while protecting their narrow Congressional majorities in both the House and Senate in 2022 and 2024, and also retaining the presidency in 2024.
2020 Forecasts: President & Senate
by admingene on November 1, 2020
NOVEMBER 3, 2020: FEARLESS FORECASTS
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
[DISCLAIMER: MY ELECTION PROJECTIONS THIS YEAR COME WITH A CAVEAT. THEY ASSUME THAT THE SUPREME COURT WILL NOT INTERFERE WITH THE ELECTION IN VARIOUS STATES, THEREBY AWARDING THE PRESIDENCY TO DONALD TRUMP, EVEN THOUGH HE WOULD HAVE LOST WITHOUT THEIR INTERVENTION. I DO NOT THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN, BUT IF IT DOES, I FEAR IT MAY BE GOOD-BYE OUR DEMOCRACY AND GOOD-BYE TO THE GREAT EXPERIMENT THAT IS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.]
As in past years, for this year’s election projection I will look at each state individually. If not for 2016, I would feel more confident in these projections. So who knows? Someone recently asked for my track record predicting the presidential races. It is pretty good (except for 2016), and once again this year will be difficult for a number of states. Will Biden win by a narrow margin, in a blowout, or will Trump win? Here are my past results for the 50 states and the District of Columbia:
2016: Missed 4 states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida)
2012: Missed 1 state (Florida – predicted for Romney, went to Obama)
2008: Missed 1 state (Indiana – predicted for McCain, went to Obama)
2004: Missed 1 state (Ohio – predicted for Kerry, went to Bush)
2000: Missed 1 or 2 states: (New Hampshire – predicted for Gore, went to
Bush; Florida predicted for Gore…)
Bottom Line this year: Joe Biden will be elected.
How Biden Gets to 270 Electoral Votes
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 232 electoral votes, 38 short of what she needed for a victory. Assuming that Joe Biden holds all the states that Clinton won, how does he get another 38? In general, there are 2 ways:
1. He wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (46 electoral votes)
2. He wins Michigan, Wisconsin and any one of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, or Texas.
Trump seems fairly well assured of receiving 126 electoral votes from these 20 states: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
Biden seems fairly well assured of receiving 233 electoral votes from the following 21 Clinton-winning states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and the District of Columbia. (Note: There is one Maine Congressional District that may give its one electoral vote to Trump, but Biden may win one Congressional District elector from Nebraska.)
10 Battleground States
The Big 3: Michigan (16 Electoral Votes), Pennsylvania (20),
Wisconsin (10)
These are the “blue wall” states that Trump won by a total of 78,000 votes and that gave him his victory. While Pennsylvania will be the closest and most tenuous, the former Vice-President has been ahead all year, often by significant margins, so Biden should win all 3, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Arizona – 11 Electoral Votes
This has been very close for a long time, with Biden consistently holding an edge in virtually all reliable polls. This will be very close, but Arizona is a little ahead of Texas, so I think Biden will win Arizona.
Florida – 29 Electoral votes
As always, Florida will be close. If Trump does not win here, there is pretty much no way he can be re-elected. Biden has held small, but consistent leads, from 2%-5% for a long time. It is always dangerous to predict a Democrat winning here, but I think Biden’s inroads with older voters will give Florida to Biden.
Georgia – 16 Electoral votes
Georgia may be the most interesting state this year. In 2018, Stacey Abrams lost the governorship by 1.4%, or about 55,000 votes. Since then, there have been 573,000+ new registrants. But since Georgians do not register by political party, we cannot know for sure the proportion of new Republican, Democratic and Independent voters. Nonetheless, I believe that a plurality of new registrants are Democrats and they will make up Abrams’ 55,000 vote shortfall. It may be a stretch, but I believe Biden will win Georgia.
Iowa – 6 electoral Votes
No polling in any state has been consistently closer than Iowa for many weeks. Trump won this last time by 9%. Most likely, Trump will win a close one in Iowa.
North Carolina – 15 electoral votes
If there is a poster child for the “New South,” North Carolina might be it. As in some other states, this has been close all along, with Biden holding slight leads in most reliable polls. It will be close, but I think Biden will win North Carolina.
Ohio – 18 Electoral votes
As everyone probably knows, no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. Trump won here by 8% in 2016 but the most recent polls have this a dead heat. I would not be surprised to see a Biden win here, especially if he is winning big everywhere, but for now, I would expect that Trump will win Ohio.
Texas – 38 Electoral Votes
Texas has gotten significant press coverage as it gets closer to becoming a purple state rather than a red one. Like Beto O’Rourke in 2018’s Senate campaign, Biden will get closer than any Democrat in a long time, but most likely Trump will win Texas.
SUMMARY
With the projections in the 10 Battleground States, the final totals may look like:
Trump Safe States 126 Electoral Votes
Trump Battleground States 62 Electoral Votes
Trump Total 188 Electoral Votes
Biden Safe States 233 Electoral Votes
Biden Battleground States 117 electoral Votes
Biden Total 350 Electoral Votes
One final note: If this becomes a blowout election, Biden could amass more than 400 electoral votes and indeed, that would be very sweet.
U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGNS
This year, there are 35 seats up for election (including a special election second seat in Georgia, where there will likely be a run-off election in January. But this discussion only deals with the other 34. Included is a special election in Arizona to fill the last two years of the late John McCain’s term.
12 seats are currently held by Democrats
22 seats are currently held by Republicans
Democrats need to have a net gain of 4 seats to gain control of the Senate or, if Biden wins, 3 seats, with Vice President Harris being the potential tie-breaking vote. Therefore, the Democrats will need to have 15 or 16 of these seats instead of the current 12.
Here is how the 34 seats shape up:
Safe/Very Likely Democratic (13)
Arizona* (Mark Kelly)
Colorado* (John Hickenlooper)
Delaware (Chris Coons)
Illinois (Dick Durbin)
Massachusetts (Ed Markey)
Michigan (Gary Peters)
Minnesota (Tina Smith)
New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen)
New Jersey (Corey Booker)
New Mexico (Ben Ray Lujan)
Oregon (Jeff Merkley)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
Virginia (Mark Warner)
Safe/Very Likely Republican (13)
Alabama* (Tommy Tuberville)
Arkansas (Tom Cotton)
Idaho (Jim Risch)
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)
Louisiana (Bill Cassidy)
Mississippi (Cindy Hyde-Smith)
Nebraska (Ben Sasse)
Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe)
South Dakota (Mike Rounds)
Tennessee (Bill Hagerty)
Texas (John Cornyn)
West Virginia (Shelley Moore Capito)
Wyoming (Cynthia Lummis)
*Indicates change of party winning seat
8 Contested Seats
Alaska
Democratic candidate Dr. Al Gross has been making a real contest out of this election, but Alaska is still too Republican.
Prediction: SULLIVAN HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS
Georgia
A close race where Democrat Jon Ossoff may be slightly ahead of Republican incumbent David Perdue. In a state rapidly becoming purple, this one looks pretty good for the Democrats.
Prediction: OSSOFF PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS
Iowa
Perhaps the closest race in the country, with the polls going back and forth between Republican incumbent Joni Ernst and Democrat Theresa Greenfield. But Iowa is tough for Democrats.
Prediction: ERNST HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS
Kansas
Like Alaska, the Democrats have a strong candidate in former Republican Barbara Bollier against Republican Roger Marshall, but Kansas is just too Republican.
Prediction: MARSHALL HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS
Maine
Susan Collins has been here for a very long time and has been very popular, easily winning re-election several times. But in a state where Trump is very unpopular, she has been aligned with the President too often. She has trailed State House Speaker Sara Gideon all summer and fall, although not by large amounts. This will be close.
Prediction: GIDEON PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS
Montana
This is a tough one. Democratic Governor Steve Bullock vs. Republican Senator Steve Daines. Trump will win this state easily, but Montanans are frequent ticket-splitters. The other Senator is a Democrat, Jon Tester. It will be close, but I don’t expect a Democratic victory.
Prediction: DAINES HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS
North Carolina
This looked like a sure win for the Democrats until Cal Cunningham got embroiled in a sex scandal. But Republican Thom Tillis is very unpopular. It looks like Cunningham may very well hold onto his victory.
Prediction: CUNNINGHAM PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS
South Carolina
Democrats have dreamed of unseating Mitch McConnell in Kentucky and Lindsay Graham in South Carolina. While McConnell is very unlikely to lose, Graham is in a very tough battle with Democrat Jaime Harrison. While a Democratic victory is certainly possible, I have a hard time seeing South Carolina electing a Democrat.
Prediction: GRAHAM HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS
FINAL PREDICTED TOTALS
Democrats win 16 seats
Republicans win 18 seats
Result: Democrats pick up the 4 seats they need so that the Senate will have:
49 Democrats
49 Republicans
2 Independents (who caucus with Democrats)
This makes for an effective total of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.
Poll Closing Times – 11/3/20
by admingene on October 30, 2020
Poll Closing Times: Nov. 3, 2020
All times Pacific Standard Time
3 P.M
Indiana
Kentucky
4 P.M.
Florida (most)
Georgia
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia
4:30 P.M.
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
5:00 P.M.
Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida (rest)
Illinois
Kansas (part)
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan (part)
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Dakota (part)
Tennessee (part)
Texas
Washington, D.C.
5:30 P.M.
Arkansas
6:00 PM
Arizona
Colorado
Kansas
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
South Dakota
Wisconsin
Wyoming
7:00 P.M.
Idaho (part)
Iowa
Montana
Nevada
North Dakota (part)
Oregon (part)
Utah
8:00 P.M.
California
Idaho (part)
North Dakota
Oregon (most)
Washington
9:00 P.M.
Alaska (part)
Hawaii
10:00 P.M.
Alaska
When States Process and/or Count Absentee Votes
by admingene on October 30, 2020
When States Process and/or Count Absentee Votes
Note: There are many different sources about when states process and count absentee/drop-off/mail-in ballots. They are not necessarily consistent with each other. I have tried to figure out each state as best as possible, but I cannot guarantee that each state is correct. But you get the idea.
Process and Start Counting Before Election Day
Arizona
Colorado
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Kansas
Maryland
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Jersey
North Carolina
Ohio
Oregon
Rhode Island
Utah
Vermont
Process Before Election Day But Don’t Start Counting Until Nov. 3
Alaska
Arkansas
California
Connecticut
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Washington
Washington, D.C.
Process and Count on Election Day
Alabama
Mississippi
New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
South Dakota
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
A Simple Plea to Republicans
by admingene on October 2, 2020
October 1, 2020
A Simple Plea to Republicans
Over the course of our lifetimes some people have become Democrats, some Republicans, some something else and some don’t care about any of it. And this is how it should be, since we are not all the same. Republicans generally like less government and lower taxes. Democrats are not as concerned with these goals, as long as a worthwhile purpose (as they see it) is served..
This year we find ourselves in a different situation, at least in the campaign for President. Donald Trump is neither a Republican nor a Democrat. He is not Eisenhower, Reagan, or either Bush. He is not Romney, McCain, Dole or Ford. He’s not even Nixon. He is a racist, anti-Semite (see Charlottesville), would-be authoritarian. For Democrats, the choice is easy. For Republicans and some others, not so much. Were roles reversed, I would like to think that I would vote for Democrats as I usually do, but not for President. And that is what I am asking of my Republican friends. Vote as you usually do for other offices, but please do not vote to re-elect Donald Trump. The future of this great experiment called the United States of America depends on it.
I will leave you with the now famous poem first taken from a speech by Martin Niemoller in 1946. He was a Lutheran pastor and theologian who started out as a Nazi supporter in the early 30’s and ended up in Dachau:
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
The Atlantic vs. Access Hollywood
by admingene on September 7, 2020
September 7, 2020
The Atlantic vs. Access Hollywood
With the article just released in The Atlantic, have we now reached the point in the campaign that is most comparable to the 2016 release of the Access Hollywood recording? And why may this year be different?
Just to review: The infamous Access Hollywood recording was released on October 7, 2016. On October 28, 2016, FBI Director James Comey announced that the FBI was re-investigating Hillary Clinton, essentially saying, “Maybe we were wrong, maybe she really is a crook.” According to data compiled from Real Clear Politics, between October 10 and October 27, over the course of 31 national polls, Clinton led Trump by 6%. Between October 28 and Election Day, November 8, over the course of 19 national polls, Clinton’s lead shrank to 3% and in the actual vote, she won the popular vote by 2%. The difference can be explained by the fact that before Oct. 28, a majority of the many voters who disliked both candidates were choosing Clinton. After Oct. 28, and on Election Day, a majority of these voters chose Trump.
Today, Trump faces another personal campaign crisis with the charges made in Jeffrey Goldberg’s article and corroborated by several news organizations, including the AP, NY Times, Washington Post, FOX News and CNN (and by now, perhaps others). In short, Trump has frequently expressed disdain for people who serve in the military. In his mind, to serve is to be stupid, to get captured or wounded makes you a loser, and to be killed while serving makes you a sucker.
The big question is: will this affect the election? I think it will.
Yes, I know his attacks on John McCain and Gold Star families have not derailed his campaigns in the past. But now he has a track record, people know who he is, and these allegations confirm and heighten this profile. He has been attacked by many retired military officers, including some who worked for him in the White House, like Gen. James Mattis. And a recent poll of active military by the Military Times showed Biden leading Trump by 4%. This last is highly unusual. Military members have always favored the Republican over the Democratic candidate for President. It takes a lot for active duty military members to oppose an incumbent Republican Commander-in-Chief.
Undermining the staying power of this issue on voters’ minds, there will be various books released, some as soon as this week, that will further expose how incompetent and unfit for office Trump is. Two within the next week are Michael Cohen’s book and probably of greater importance, Bob Woodward’s new book. More important because: Woodward had access to Trump; interviewed him for his book; and focuses much of the book on Trump’s response (or non-response) to the pandemic.
It will be hard for any single story about Trump to maintain the public’s attention. However, I believe that as the dust settles, there will be untold numbers of Americans who will remember Trump’s opinions of those who serve or have served in the military. Having had a son who served in the Middle East, the Biden campaign will continue to make this a point of differentiation between the two candidates. And every time they do, Trump will look worse.
As for the initial question I posed, yes, this year will be different. Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton. There are no large scale doubts about his honesty and integrity. There can be nothing to compare with James Comey’s actions in late October, 2016. Even if the Attorney General tries to drum up something against Biden, voters will see it for what it is, a political hit job with no basis in anything but Barr’s and Trump’s twisted minds.
The article in the Atlantic may very well, finally, be the issue that lasts throughout the fall.
Who Wants To Be a Dictator?
by admingene on July 30, 2020
July 30, 2020
Who Wants To Be a Dictator?
I have been inspired by an article that appeared in this past Sunday’s Sacramento Bee concerning the many signs of authoritarianism that we have seen. Here are my top candidates for inclusion in this kind of list. I’m sure you have some more.
#1: Postponing Elections
President Trump has said that maybe we should postpone the November election. A would-be dictator would want an election postponed until either he was assured of victory or … forever. Trump would be happy either way.
#2: Undermining the Election
Nearly every day Trump rails against the non-existent likelihood that the election will be rife with voter fraud and says he may not accept the results. What happens if he refuses to leave the White House? Or if he encourages his supporters to rise up against the “illegitimate” president?
#3: Setting Up a Secret Police Force
First, Trump sends Federal agents to Portland ostensibly to protect Federal facilities, then sends or gets ready to send agents to other American cities without even the pretense of protecting Federal buildings. One doesn’t have to be so heavy-handed as to call your secret police the KGB, Staasi or Gestapo. The benign sounding “Homeland Security” will do nicely.
#4: Rewarding Those Who Protect You
Roger Stone, Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn have protected Trump and he has supported them, even commuting Stone’s sentence and getting the AG to drop the case against Flynn (still to be decided by the US Court of Appeals). Of course, the worst is Stone, who not only was convicted of lying but of witness tampering. A dictator has no respect for either the rule of law or protecting the criminal justice system.
#5: Setting Up Conflicts Between People Based on Race, Religion or Ethnicity
Trump’s racism towards Blacks, LatinX, Muslims and Jews are well-documented. In fact, some of his core supporters are attracted to him because of this. Most would-be dictators set up the “other” as their target for whatever is wrong in the country. From the day he descended the escalator to announce his candidacy in 2015, this has been the cornerstone of who Trump is.
#6: Trump Makes Money By Being President
There are numerous instances of his profiting by being President. Here are 2 examples. Which is more egregious? Having Vice-President Pence stay at his hotel in Ireland even though it is 180 miles from Pence’s meetings or making sure that military personnel stay at his expensive resort in Scotland? And he says he is a good guy because he claims that he is not taking his presidential salary.
#7: He Likes and Works With Dictators
Dictators are his kind of people. His affinity for Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un and Recip Erdogan are well known. Many people want to know why he always takes Putin’s word on every issue and refuses to even mention to Putin the issues of bounties on our soldiers’ heads or that Russia is arming the Taliban. He has spoken with Putin 7 times since the end of March and never mentioned either one. If only he had as good a relationship with our friends. And how many times has he spoken to Merkel, Macron or even Boris Johnson in the same period? I’ll wager it was fewer than 7.
And the list goes on and on and on and…
And this list doesn’t even touch on the coronavirus and how or why he has denied its severity and all the science surrounding it. When he said the other day that he doesn’t understand why Dr. Fauci has high approval ratings and he does not, I believe that for once, he was being truthful – he really doesn’t understand. How sad for him, but more importantly, how sad for us.
Lies, Lies and More Lies
by admingene on June 1, 2020
June 1, 2020
Lies, Lies and More Lies
(Even as we are in the throes of protests, rioting and a President who once again abdicates his responsibility to reassure and heal a nation, there are other issues that we should not forget. This post addresses two of those issues.)
As we all learned (or should have learned) in high school, totalitarian regimes are built on fear and lies, often referred to as the ‘big lie”. Our wannabe totalitarian in the White House has spent much of his public life following this prescription, especially when it comes to lies, starting with what has come to be known as “birtherism”. Now, there are 2 more big lies he and his enablers are propagating to help his re-election prospects. One is about the American response to COVID-19 and the other is about mail-in ballots.
Big Lie #1
Republicans like syndicated columnist Marc Thiessen (in a recent column), are claiming that all the measures taken to limit the spread of the virus were not meant to save lives and reduce suffering, rather “(t)he objective of the lockdown was never to stop every American from getting COVID-19, which is impossible; it was to buy time to learn about the virus and prevent our health care system from being overwhelmed.” And he claims that, “(w)e have accomplished those goals.”
He (and other Republicans) are also claiming that “(t)he costs are not just in lost jobs, but in lost lives. Americans have been forced to put off care for non-COVID-19 illnesses such as cancer and cardiac disease – forgoing screenings, surgeries, chemotherapy and emergency room visits. While the government is speeding clinical trials for COVID-19 treatments and vaccines, trials for many non-COVID diseases have ground to a halt.” He also claims that we might see an additional 40,000 deaths due to suicides and drug overdoses among the jobless, as well as an additional 2 million people addicted to drugs. Of course, he neglects to mention that health experts have repeatedly stated that without the measures we have undertaken, millions of Americans could have died.
These claims are supposed to lead to the conclusion that President Trump has not shirked his duty to lead the country during the pandemic. Rather, efforts to control the spread of COVID-19 were not to protect people but to protect our health care infrastructure; there is only so much anyone could have done and we did it, and the cost for saving untold lives was probably too high, economically and in other health-related areas. In other words, Trump did what was necessary in the beginning, the responses to the virus were often overblown and counter-productive, and it is now time to stop all this shelter-in-place and other nonsense and get back to work. We just have to accept the deaths and severe illnesses related to COVID-19. But mostly that Trump did a fine job vis-a-vis COVID-19.
Big Lie #2
The second big lie, as we are constantly hearing, is that mail-in ballots are guaranteed to produce massive voter fraud. As anyone who has looked at the evidence knows, this, too, is nonsense. Six states currently vote entirely by mail with no evidence of voter fraud and considerable evidence of increased voter turnout. Of course, this fits in with the extensive voter suppression efforts that Republicans have undertaken for many years.
Two related notes: First, shortly after his inauguration, President Trump formed a commission to look into voter fraud that had been committed in 2016. After a few months, the commission was disbanded because they could not find any evidence of voter fraud anywhere in the country. By the way, Kansas Republican Kris Kobach was chair of that commission. When he ran for Governor of Kansas last year, the Democrat was elected. He is running for the U.S. Senate this year and Democrats hope he wins the primary to give Democrats a chance to flip that seat. The primary is August 4.
Second, the Republican Party has filed suit in California to prevent the State from mailing ballots to all registered voters. 70 percent of all registered voters in California are already “Permanent Vote By Mail” voters; in other words, more than two-thirds of California voters would be voting by mail in November, even without the new rules. In addition, before COVID-19, there were already 15 counties that were going to vote only by mail (with supplemental drop-off locations), including 4 of the largest counties, Los Angeles, Orange, Sacramento and Santa Clara. And when you add in these counties’ registered voters who were not previously vote-by-mail to the permanent vote-by-mail Californians, more than 75 percent, perhaps as high as 80 percent of all votes to be cast in the State already would have been by mail, even before COVID-19.
So why would the Republican Party file this lawsuit? Either because they believe the claim of voter fraud is a winning issue or this is just another example of how out of touch California Republicans are with the rest of the state.
Gene on the Radio
On April 15 and then again on May 6, Gene appeared with his good friend and long-time political consultant, Larry Levine, (author of the always interesting blog, thepoliticaldish.com), on “The Uncommon Sense Democrat,” a one-hour show hosted by long time Democratic activist Eric Bauman on KCAA radio. Below, are the links to those 2 shows. (Note: About 5 or 6 minutes into the recordings, the shows begin with Eric’s coronavirus updates.)
We are scheduled to appear once again, on June 10 at 2pm PDT. If you are interested but cannot listen live, the link afterwards will probably be: podcasts.kcaastreaming.com/uncommondemocrat/20200610.html
April 15: podcasts.kcaastreaming.com/uncommondemocrat/20200415.html
May 6: podcasts.kcaastreaming.com/uncommondemocrat/20200506.html
Positive Signs For Biden
by admingene on May 17, 2020
May 17, 2020
Positive Signs For Biden
Two recent polls show very encouraging signs for Joe Biden and the Democrats. The first of these examined those voters who dislike both major candidates for President. In 2016, there were a lot of voters who did not like both Trump and Clinton. After the Access Hollywood tape was made public, it looked like the election was over as most in this group of voters were deciding to vote for Hillary. Then, just 11 days before the election, FBI Director James Comey announced that maybe he was wrong and they were re-investigating Clinton. Even though he recanted several days later, the damage was done and Trump ended up winning among voters who disliked both candidates by about 17%.
In a recent Monmouth University poll cited by Politico, among those voters who dislike both Trump and Biden, Biden leads by 40%. As we all know, anything can happen over the next 5+ months, but if this lead holds in November, Biden will be in very good shape.
The second piece of good news for Biden is the recent results of polling that looked at voters over 65. This is a group that tends to be more conservative, generally, and that Trump won by 53% to 44%, according to a Pew Research poll. However, in a recent Florida poll, Biden was leading among older voters by 52% to 42%. With Trump’s less than either sympathetic or empathetic pronouncements about protecting the health of Americans, especially those over 65, there is good reason to believe that he may do much worse this year than he did in 2016 with older voters. If the numbers hold, Trump will lose Florida (and several other states) and the election.
A Recent Discussion
Recently, I had an email exchange with friends that touched on the current state of the Republican Party and the differences among a Trump supporter, a Trump enabler and a Republican voter. My contribution to the discussion began by saying that we should never pigeonhole people based on their opinions on one subject or another; there should always be room for diverse opinions. That is why “pro-life Democrat” and “pro-choice Republican” are not oxymorons. But I believe we need to put this into context for today’s campaign for President:
Donald Trump is not only the worst president in history, but probably the most dangerous American in history, certainly the most dangerous to ever have a position of power. Among other issues, he makes every issue, even non-issues, into divisive issues, as the wearing of masks during the current pandemic clearly shows.
As Sartre said, “There is no reality except in action.” In these very perilous times, politically and health-wise, there is only one action that everyone who cares about this country can take – vote for the Democrat against Trump in November. No other action is on a par. You cannot say “I don’t like Trump but I am a Republican.” Anyone who does not vote for the Democrat is either a Trump supporter or a Trump enabler. Period. If the Republican Party ever abandons Trumpism we may eventually, once again, have the luxury of civil discourse and nuance. But not now.
Gene on the Radio
On April 15 and then again on May 6, Gene appeared with his good friend and long-time political consultant, Larry Levine, (author of the always interesting blog, thepoliticaldish.com), on “The Uncommon Sense Democrat,” a one-hour show hosted by long time Democratic activist Eric Bauman on KCAA radio. Below, are the links to those 2 shows. (Note: About 5 or 6 minutes into the recordings, the shows begin with Eric’s coronavirus updates.)
We are scheduled to appear once again, on June 10 at 2pm PDT.
April 15: podcasts.kcaastreaming.com/uncommondemocrat/20200415.html
May 6: podcasts.kcaastreaming.com/uncommondemocrat/20200506.html