Political Blue Gene

NOVEMBER 3, 2020:  FEARLESS FORECASTS

PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN

[DISCLAIMER:  MY ELECTION PROJECTIONS THIS YEAR COME WITH A CAVEAT.  THEY ASSUME THAT THE SUPREME COURT WILL NOT INTERFERE WITH THE ELECTION IN VARIOUS STATES, THEREBY AWARDING THE PRESIDENCY TO DONALD TRUMP, EVEN THOUGH HE WOULD HAVE LOST WITHOUT THEIR INTERVENTION.  I DO NOT THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN, BUT IF IT DOES, I FEAR IT MAY BE GOOD-BYE OUR DEMOCRACY AND GOOD-BYE TO THE GREAT EXPERIMENT THAT IS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.]

As in past years, for this year’s election projection I will look at each state individually.  If not for 2016, I would feel more confident in these projections.  So who knows?  Someone recently asked for my track record predicting the presidential races.  It is pretty good (except for 2016), and once again this year will be difficult for a number of states.  Will Biden win by a narrow margin, in a blowout, or will Trump win?  Here are my past results for the 50 states and the District of Columbia:

2016: Missed 4 states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida)
2012: Missed 1 state (Florida – predicted for Romney, went to Obama)
2008: Missed 1 state (Indiana – predicted for McCain, went to Obama)
2004: Missed 1 state (Ohio – predicted for Kerry, went to Bush)
2000: Missed 1 or 2 states: (New Hampshire – predicted for Gore, went to
Bush; Florida predicted for Gore…)

Bottom Line this year:  Joe Biden will be elected.

How Biden Gets to 270 Electoral Votes
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 232 electoral votes, 38 short of what she needed for a victory.  Assuming that Joe Biden holds all the states that Clinton won, how does he get another 38?  In general, there are 2 ways:
1. He wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (46 electoral votes)
2. He wins Michigan, Wisconsin and any one of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, or Texas.

Trump seems fairly well assured of receiving 126 electoral votes from these 20 states:  Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Biden seems fairly well assured of receiving 233 electoral votes from the following 21 Clinton-winning states:  California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and the District of Columbia.  (Note: There is one Maine Congressional District that may give its one electoral vote to Trump, but Biden may win one Congressional District elector from Nebraska.)

10 Battleground States

The Big 3: Michigan (16 Electoral Votes), Pennsylvania (20),
Wisconsin (10)
These are the “blue wall” states that Trump won by a total of 78,000 votes and that gave him his victory.  While Pennsylvania will be the closest and most tenuous, the former Vice-President has been ahead all year, often by significant margins, so Biden should win all 3, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Arizona – 11 Electoral Votes
This has been very close for a long time, with Biden consistently holding an edge in virtually all reliable polls.  This will be very close, but Arizona is a little ahead of Texas, so I think Biden will win Arizona.

Florida – 29 Electoral votes
As always, Florida will be close.  If Trump does not win here, there is pretty much no way he can be re-elected.  Biden has held small, but consistent leads, from 2%-5% for a long time.  It is always dangerous to predict a Democrat winning here, but I think Biden’s inroads with older voters will give Florida to Biden.

Georgia – 16 Electoral votes
Georgia may be the most interesting state this year.  In 2018, Stacey Abrams lost the governorship by 1.4%, or about 55,000 votes.  Since then, there have been 573,000+ new registrants.  But since Georgians do not register by political party, we cannot know for sure the proportion of new Republican, Democratic and Independent voters.  Nonetheless, I believe that a plurality of new registrants are Democrats and they will make up Abrams’ 55,000 vote shortfall.  It may be a stretch, but I believe Biden will win Georgia.

Iowa – 6 electoral Votes
No polling in any state has been consistently closer than Iowa for many weeks.  Trump won this last time by 9%.  Most likely, Trump will win a close one in Iowa.

North Carolina – 15 electoral votes
If there is a poster child for the “New South,” North Carolina might be it.  As in some other states, this has been close all along, with Biden holding slight leads in most reliable polls.  It will be close, but I think Biden will win North Carolina.

Ohio – 18 Electoral votes
As everyone probably knows, no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio.  Trump won here by 8% in 2016 but the most recent polls have this a dead heat.  I would not be surprised to see a Biden win here, especially if he is winning big everywhere, but for now, I would expect that Trump will win Ohio.

Texas – 38 Electoral Votes
Texas has gotten significant press coverage as it gets closer to becoming a purple state rather than a red one.  Like Beto O’Rourke in 2018’s Senate campaign, Biden will get closer than any Democrat in a long time, but most likely Trump will win Texas.

SUMMARY
With the projections in the 10 Battleground States, the final totals may look like:

Trump Safe States                      126 Electoral Votes
Trump Battleground States            62 Electoral Votes
Trump Total                              188 Electoral Votes

Biden Safe States                        233 Electoral Votes
Biden Battleground States           117 electoral Votes
Biden Total                               350 Electoral Votes

One final note:  If this becomes a blowout election, Biden could amass more than 400 electoral votes and indeed, that would be very sweet.

U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGNS
This year, there are 35 seats up for election (including a special election second seat in Georgia, where there will likely be a run-off election in January.  But this discussion only deals with the other 34.  Included is a special election in Arizona to fill the last two years of the late John McCain’s term.

12 seats are currently held by Democrats
22 seats are currently held by Republicans

Democrats need to have a net gain of 4 seats to gain control of the Senate or, if Biden wins, 3 seats, with Vice President Harris being the potential tie-breaking vote.  Therefore, the Democrats will need to have 15 or 16 of these seats instead of the current 12.

Here is how the 34 seats shape up:

Safe/Very Likely Democratic (13)
Arizona*  (Mark Kelly)
Colorado*  (John Hickenlooper)
Delaware    (Chris Coons)
Illinois  (Dick Durbin)
Massachusetts  (Ed Markey)
Michigan  (Gary Peters)
Minnesota  (Tina Smith)
New Hampshire  (Jeanne Shaheen)
New Jersey  (Corey Booker)
New Mexico  (Ben Ray Lujan)
Oregon  (Jeff Merkley)
Rhode Island  (Jack Reed)
Virginia  (Mark Warner)

Safe/Very Likely Republican (13)
Alabama*  (Tommy Tuberville)
Arkansas  (Tom Cotton)
Idaho  (Jim Risch)
Kentucky  (Mitch McConnell)
Louisiana  (Bill Cassidy)
Mississippi  (Cindy Hyde-Smith)
Nebraska  (Ben Sasse)
Oklahoma  (Jim Inhofe)
South Dakota  (Mike Rounds)
Tennessee  (Bill Hagerty)
Texas  (John Cornyn)
West Virginia  (Shelley Moore Capito)
Wyoming  (Cynthia Lummis)

*Indicates change of party winning seat

8  Contested Seats

Alaska
Democratic candidate Dr. Al Gross has been making a real contest out of this election, but Alaska is still too Republican.
Prediction:  SULLIVAN HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

Georgia
A close race where Democrat Jon Ossoff may be slightly ahead of Republican incumbent David Perdue.  In a state rapidly becoming purple, this one looks pretty good for the Democrats.
Prediction:  OSSOFF PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

Iowa
Perhaps the closest race in the country, with the polls going back and forth between Republican incumbent Joni Ernst and Democrat Theresa Greenfield.  But Iowa is tough for Democrats.
Prediction:  ERNST HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

Kansas
Like Alaska, the Democrats have a strong candidate in former Republican Barbara Bollier against Republican Roger Marshall, but Kansas is just too Republican.
Prediction:  MARSHALL HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

Maine
Susan Collins has been here for a very long time and has been very popular, easily winning re-election several times.  But in a state where Trump is very unpopular, she has been aligned with the President too often.  She has trailed State House Speaker Sara Gideon all summer and fall, although not by large amounts.  This will be close.
Prediction:  GIDEON PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

Montana
This is a tough one.  Democratic Governor Steve Bullock vs. Republican Senator Steve Daines.  Trump will win this state easily, but Montanans are frequent ticket-splitters.  The other Senator is a Democrat, Jon Tester.  It will be close, but I don’t expect a Democratic victory.
Prediction:  DAINES HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

North Carolina
This looked like a sure win for the Democrats until Cal Cunningham got embroiled in a sex scandal.  But Republican Thom Tillis is very unpopular.  It looks like Cunningham may very well hold onto his victory.
Prediction:  CUNNINGHAM PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

South Carolina
Democrats have dreamed of unseating Mitch McConnell in Kentucky and Lindsay Graham in South Carolina.  While McConnell is very unlikely to lose, Graham is in a very tough battle with Democrat Jaime Harrison.  While a Democratic victory is certainly possible, I have a hard time seeing South Carolina electing a Democrat.
Prediction:  GRAHAM HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

FINAL PREDICTED TOTALS
Democrats win 16 seats
Republicans win 18 seats
Result:  Democrats pick up the 4 seats they need so that the Senate will have:
49 Democrats
49 Republicans
2 Independents (who caucus with Democrats)

This makes for an effective total of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.