Political Blue Gene

NOVEMBER 5, 2024:  FEARLESS FORECASTS

PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN

In 2020, I wrote the following disclaimer before making my forecasts.  I think it is worth repeating this year:

[DISCLAIMER:  MY ELECTION PROJECTIONS THIS YEAR COME WITH A CAVEAT.  THEY ASSUME THAT THE SUPREME COURT WILL NOT INTERFERE WITH THE ELECTION IN VARIOUS STATES, THEREBY AWARDING THE PRESIDENCY TO DONALD TRUMP, EVEN THOUGH HE WOULD HAVE LOST WITHOUT THEIR INTERVENTION.  I DO NOT THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN, BUT IF IT DOES, I FEAR IT MAY BE GOOD-BYE TO OUR DEMOCRACY AND GOOD-BYE TO THE GREAT EXPERIMENT THAT IS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.]

Some Random Thoughts

1. Few remember that back on June 27, if Biden had not had such a disastrous debate performance, everyone would have been talking about how incoherent and incapable Trump was.
2. Please ignore all the polls.  Even at this late date, some are reporting results for all registered voters and not “likely voters.”  Asking someone who is not likely to vote who they support is like asking a vegetarian what is their favorite steak – irrelevant and a waste of time.
3. Presidential polling used to be part science, part art.  Now it is part science, part magic 8 ball.
4. In 1974, Richard Nixon resigned after Republican leadership in the Senate told him he would be impeached for his crimes.  50 years later, Republicans who tell the truth about Trump are ostracized from the party.
5. If you tell a Trump supporter about one of the horrible things he said or did, they do not believe it because they haven’t seen it.  And they haven’t seen it because they only watch Fox news, which doesn’t report any of his craziness.
6. In 2016, many of us said Trump was a poorly disguised Nazi and that Fox news was an American version of Joseph Goebbels’ Nazi propaganda machine.  Now that people are more willing to say it, it may be too late.
7. About one-third of eligible voters did not vote in 2020.  If about half of all remaining eligible voters vote for Donald Trump, that means that about one-third support Trump, one-third oppose him, and one-third are so ignorant that they can’t be bothered to vote because they have no idea what having a neo-Nazi, racist, dictator as President means for their lives and those of their loved ones.  In other words, we are counting on slightly more than one-third of all adults in this country to save our democracy.

          As in past years, for this year’s election projection I will look at each state individually.  If not for 2016, I would feel more confident in these projections, although I did better in 2020..  So who knows?  Someone recently asked for my track record predicting the presidential races.  It is pretty good (except for 2016), and once again this year will be difficult for a number of states.  This promises to be a very close election, but maybe not.  Here are my past results for the 50 states and the District of Columbia:

2020: Missed 2 states (Florida and North Carolina)
2016: Missed 4 states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida)
2012: Missed 1 state (Florida – predicted for Romney, went to Obama)
2008: Missed 1 state (Indiana – predicted for McCain, went to Obama)
2004: Missed 1 state (Ohio – predicted for Kerry, went to Bush)
2000: Missed 1 or 2 states: (New Hampshire – predicted for Gore, went to Bush;
         Florida predicted for Gore…)

Bottom Line this year:  Kamala Harris will be elected.

Trump seems fairly well assured of receiving 219 electoral votes from these 25 states:  Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine (1 of 4), Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (4 of 5), North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Harris seems fairly well assured of receiving 226 electoral votes from the following 21 states:  California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine (3 of 4) , Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska (1 of 5), New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and the District of Columbia.  (Note: There is one Maine Congressional District that may give its one electoral vote to Trump, but Harris will probably win one Congressional District elector from Nebraska.)

7 Battleground States

The Big 3: Michigan (15 Electoral Votes), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)

These are the “blue wall” states that Trump won by a total of 78,000 votes in 2016 and Biden won these 3 by 256,000 votes in 2020, although the Wisconsin margin was just 20,000 votes.  While all three have been neck and neck in everyone’s minds all year,  and the Vice-President  may have a problem holding Biden’s margin among Muslim voters, Harris should win all 3, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Until 2020, 3 of the other 4 Battleground states were usually thought of as Republican states (Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina), while one (Nevada) has been somewhat more often thought of as Democratic.  Biden won 3 of these 4 in 2020, losing only North Carolina.  All will undoubtedly be close this year.  Here is my best guess (and the operative word here is “guess”) about those 4 states:

Arizona – 11 Electoral Votes:  Trump

Georgia – 16 Electoral votes:  Harris

Nevada – 6 Electoral Votes:  Harris

North Carolina – 16 electoral votes:  Trump

SUMMARY

With the projections in the 7 Battleground States, the final totals may look like:

Trump Safe States                        219 Electoral Votes
Trump Battleground States              27 Electoral Votes

Trump Total                           246 Electoral Votes

Harris Safe States                         226 Electoral Votes
Harris Battleground States               66 electoral Votes

Harris Total                            292 Electoral Votes

One final note:  Everything probably depends on the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, especially Pennsylvania.  However, she could lose one of those if she wins either Georgia or North Carolina.

U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGNS

This year, the math is pretty simple.  Democrats plus independents who caucus with the Democrats currently hold 51 seats, Republicans 49.

Two seats are very likely to switch to Republicans: Jon Tester will likely lose to Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana and Republican Jim Justice will win the seat of retiring Senator Joe Manchin in West Virginia.  Therefore, the Democrats need to win all the other Senate races where they are the incumbent party plus flip one currently Republican seat and win the Presidency/Vice Presidency so that Tim Walz would be the tie breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate. 

The only possible Democratic flip would be for Colin Allred to upset Ted Cruz.  While possible, this is still Texas and unlikely to happen.  Plus, Democrats are in very tough elections in Michigan (Elissa Slotkin), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Pennsylvania (Bob Casey) and Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin).  One other interesting race:  In Nebraska, Independent Dan Osborn is making a strong, though probably futile challenge to incumbent Republican Deb Fischer.  If Osborn wins, he says he will not caucus with either party.

Final Expected Result:

Democrats 49 seats
Republicans 51 seats