Political Blue Gene

For this last election projection, I will look at each state individually.  Someone recently asked for my track record predicting the presidential races.  They are pretty good, although I find this year much more difficult to predict.  Here are my past results for the 50 states and the District of Columbia:

2008: Missed 1 state (Indiana – predicted for McCain, went to Obama)

2004: Missed 1 state (Ohio – predicted for Kerry, went to Bush)

2000: Missed 1 or 2 states: (New Hampshire – predicted for Gore, went to Bush;
Florida predicted for Gore…)

Bottom Line this year:  Obama will be re-elected.

Romney seems pretty well assured of receiving 191 electoral votes from these states:  Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Obama seems pretty well assured of receiving 237 electoral votes from California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and the District of Columbia.  (In spite of the Romney campaign making noises about and throwing late money into Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, he has little chance to win those states.  Obama’s top advisor, David Axelrod, said he would shave off his 40-year-old mustache on national television if Romney wins any 1 of those 3 states.)

Battleground States

Colorado – 9 Electoral votes

This has been extremely close since the beginning, with some
polls having Obama ahead, some having Romney ahead, some
having them tied, but the lead rarely more than a point or two.
This is still a true toss-up, but I will go with: OBAMA

Florida – 29 Electoral votes

Most polls in the past couple of weeks either have Romney with
a slight lead, the race being tied, or Obama with a point or
two lead.  However, voter suppression efforts will have done
enough to clinch a race that might anyway have been won by: ROMNEY

Iowa – 6 electoral Votes

There has not been a reputable poll that has not shown an
Obama lead in weeks. Although the race will not be a landslide,
it should be a win for: OBAMA

Nevada – 6 Electoral votes

Like Iowa, there has been no real evidence of Romney
overtaking the President. This should be a win for: OBAMA

New Hampshire – 4 Electoral Votes

Another very close race, with no clear leader.  I got this one
wrong in 2000, and may get it wrong again, but I am going with: OBAMA

North Carolina – 15 electoral votes

Romney pulled ahead here after the first debate and has held
that lead in most polls.  This should be fairly easy for: ROMNEY

Ohio – 18 Electoral votes

As everyone probably knows, this is the state that is the one
most people think Romney must win if he is to win the election.
No Republican has won the White House without winning
Ohio.  But the strength of the auto industry and legal efforts
to blunt Republicans’ voter suppression tactics, have kept
Obama ahead in virtually every reliable poll here for weeks.
Although the leads are not great, it seems likely that Ohio will go to:  OBAMA

Virginia – 13 Electoral votes

Like Colorado and New Hampshire, Virginia is too close to call.
But that won’t stop me.  Northern Virginia is Democratic,
Southern Virginia is Republican.  Polls have been very close,
but I think this will be a repeat of 2008, and won by: OBAMA

Wisconsin – 10 Electoral Votes

Like Iowa and Nevada, polls in Wisconsin have been close, but
Obama has been ahead here for weeks.  There is no real reason
to think this won’t be won by: OBAMA

 

SUMMARY

With the projections in the 9 Battleground States, the final totals may look like:

Romney Safe States                      191 Electoral Votes
Romney Battleground States           44 Electoral Votes

Romney Total                      235 Electoral Votes

Obama Safe States                       237 Electoral Votes
Obama Battleground States             66 electoral Votes

Obama Total                        303 Electoral Votes

Obama’s base of support has held reasonably well.  He will lose some states he won four years ago, like Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina.  The election could be closer, or Obama could win bigger.  If Romney manages to win Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire, he would still have to win either Wisconsin or Ohio, or a combination of Iowa and Nevada to win the election.  I think it is more likely that Obama wins Colorado, Virginia and/or New Hampshire.  I think the scenarios favoring Romney are unlikely, but watch results from the battleground states and you will know who will win the election.  I believe it will be President Obama.