Political Blue Gene

This year, there are 33 seats up for election (there are other safe Republican seats up because of retirements, but this note only deals with the regular 33).

20 are currently held by Democrats
13 are currently held by Republicans

The remaining seats divide as follows:  33 Democrats and 32 Republicans and 2 Independents, who caucus with the Democrats.

Democrats need to win 15 seats to maintain a majority, including the Vice President as a tie-breaker in a 50-50 split.  Republicans need to win 19 seats to have a majority.

Here is how the 33 seats shape up:

Safe/Very Likely Democratic (11)               Safe/Very Likely Republican (16)

Delaware                                                Alabama

Illinois                                                    Alaska*

Massachusetts                                          Arkansas*

Michigan                                                 Idaho

Minnesota                                               Louisiana

New Hampshire                                       Maine

New Jersey                                             Mississippi

New Mexico                                             Montana*

Oregon                                                   Nebraska

Rhode Island                                           Oklahoma

Virginia                                                   South Carolina

South Dakota*

Tennessee

Texas

West Virginia*

Wyoming

*Indicates change of party winning seat

 

6  Contested Seats

Colorado

Cory Gardner (Rep) vs. Mark Udall (Inc. – Dem)

Gardner has been running ahead for a long time.

Prediction:  REPUBLICAN GARDNER TAKES SEAT

 

Georgia

A close race where Republican David Perdue is now running slightly ahead of Democrat Michelle Nunn.

Prediction:  PERDUE HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

 

Iowa

Perhaps the closest race in the country, between Republican Tea Partier Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley.  In spite of being generally pessimistic this year:

Prediction: BRALEY HOLDS SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

 

Kansas

Incumbent Republican Pat Roberts vs. Independent Republican Greg Orman has been very close for weeks, but I find it hard to believe that Roberts won’t win.  Even if Orman wins, he says he will caucus with the majority party, which in the next Senate will probably be Republicans.

Prediction:  ROBERTS HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

 

Kentucky

Democrats’ dreams of defeating Mitch McConnell with Alison Grimes are just that.

Prediction:  MCCONNELL HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

 

North Carolina

This is another very difficult race to predict between Incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis, but being an optimist:

Prediction:  DEMOCRAT HAGAN HOLDS SEAT

 

FINAL PREDICTED TOTALS

Democrats win 13 seats
Republicans win 20 seats

Senate will have:
46 Democrats
52 Republicans
2 Independents (who caucus with Democrats)

This makes for an effective total of 48 Democrats and 52 Republicans. (But it could be as much as 54-46).