Political Blue Gene

U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGNS

November 8, 2016 – Fearless Forecasts

This year, there are 34 seats up for election.
10 are currently held by Democrats
24 are currently held by Republicans

The remaining seats divide as follows:  36 Democrats (and Independents who caucus with the Democrats) and 30 Republicans.

Democrats need to win 14 seats to have a majority if Clinton-Kaine win.  Republicans need to win 21 seats to have a majority (20 if they have the Vice Presidency).

Here is how the 34 seats shape up:

Safe/Very Likely Democratic (10)               Safe/Very Likely Republican (16)

California (Kamala Harris)                         Alabama (Richard Shelby)

Colorado (Michael Bennett)                       Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)

Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal)           Arizona (John McCain)

Hawaii (Brian Schatz)                                  John Boozman (Arkansas)

*Tammy Duckworth (Illinois)                    Johnny Isakson (Georgia)

Maryland (Chris Van Hollen)                     Idaho (Mike Crapo)

New York (Chuck Schumer)                       Iowa (Chick Grassley)

Oregon (Ron Wyden)                                  Kansas (Jerry Moran)

Vermont (Patrick Leahy)                           Kentucky (Rand Paul)

Washington (Patty Murray)                      Louisiana (primary 11/8)

North Dakota (John Hoeven)

Ohio (Rob Portman)

Oklahoma (James Lankford)

South Carolina (Tim Scott)

South Dakota (John Thune)

Utah (Mike Lee)

*Pick up of Republican held seat

 

8  Contested Seats:  7 currently Republican, 1 currently Democratic

Florida – Marco Rubio, Republican incumbentl

When Rubio wasn’t running, this looked like a sure bet for the Democrats.  Although this is still close, and a good Democratic turnout could result in an upset, it will be tough for the Democrats.

Prediction:  REPUBLICAN RUBIO HOLDS SEAT

Indiana – Open Seat, currently held by Republican Dan Coats

Former Senator Evan Bayh has come out of retirement to try and return to the Senate.  For a long time this looked like an easy Democratic win.  Apparently, the Bayh campaign has left something to be desired and this is now very close.  Even though this is a red state, Bayh probably needs to win for the Democrats to take over the Senate.

Prediction: EVAN BAYH PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

Missouri – Ray Blunt, Republican incumbent

Although this is another close race, most polling over the last month has Blunt with a slight lead.  With Trump carrying Missouri, this will probably hold.

Prediction:  REPUBLICAN BLUNT HOLDS SEAT

Nevada – Open Seat, currently held by Democrat Harry Reid

This is the only seat the Democrats are defending and it could look better.  Polls have been all over the place.  Turnout will be everything, even more so than in many other races.  Most recent polls show a surge for the Republican.

Prediction:  JOE HECK PICKS UP SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

New Hampshire – Kelley Ayotte, Republican incumbent

Another tight one.  Most recent polls, except one, have Ayotte ahead.  She has helped herself by disavowing Trump.

Prediction:  REPUBLICAN AYOTTE HOLDS SEAT

North Carolina – Richard Burr, Republican incumbent

Although this is another close race, like Missouri, most polling over the last month has Burr with a slight lead.

Prediction:  REPUBLICAN BURR HOLDS SEAT

Pennsylvania – Pat Toomey, Republican incumbent

This seat has been high on the Democrats’ list, and for good reason.  Katie McGinty has led all through the fall.

Prediction:  DEMOCRAT MCGINTY PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

Wisconsin – Republican Ron Johnson, Incumbent

Democrats were devastated when Russ Feingold lost his bid for re-election in 2010.  But he is back this year and has led all fall.

Prediction:  DEMOCRAT FEINGOLD PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS
FINAL PREDICTED TOTALS

Democrats win 13 seats
Republicans win 21 seats

Senate will have:     49 Democrats
51 Republicans

This gives Republicans the continued ability to block everything Clinton wants to do, including appointing a ninth U.S. Supreme Court Justice.

If you are looking for opportunities for the Democrats to get that one extra Senate seat, pay particularly close attention to Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.