Political Blue Gene

PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN

November 8, 2016:  Fearless Forecasts

           For this year’s election projection, I will look at each state individually.  Someone recently asked for my track record predicting the presidential races.  It is pretty good, although I find this year much more difficult to predict the swing or toss-up states.  Here are my past results for the 50 states and the District of Columbia:

2012: Missed 1 state (Florida – predicted for Romney, went to Obama)

2008: Missed 1 state (Indiana – predicted for McCain, went to Obama)

2004: Missed 1 state (Ohio – predicted for Kerry, went to Bush)

2000: Missed 1 or 2 states: (New Hampshire – predicted for Gore, went to
Bush; Florida predicted for Gore…)

Bottom Line this year:  Hillary Clinton will be elected.

           Trump seems fairly well assured of receiving 159 electoral votes from these states:  Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming.  (Note: There is one Maine Congressional District that will probably give its one electoral vote to Trump.)

Clinton seems fairly well assured of receiving enough votes for victory even without winning any toss-up states, with 272 electoral votes from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia.  (Note: There is one Maine Congressional District that will probably give its one electoral vote to Trump, leaving Clinton with 3 of the 4 electoral votes from Maine.)

Battleground States

Arizona – 11 Electoral Votes

Clinton has made a race of this, but I only see her
winning if this becomes a real landslide, and thanks
to James Comey, that will not happen.  Arizona will go to:                               TRUMP

Florida – 29 Electoral votes

Very close.  If Trump does not win here, even if he manages
to flip some states where he now trails, he still won’t win.
Early voting clearly breaking for Clinton.  This will be tight,
but it will go to:                                                                                                         CLINTON

Georgia – 16 Electoral votes

This is a battleground that either one could win?  Hardly.
Seems very likely to be a state for:                                                                        TRUMP

Iowa – 6 electoral Votes

No reputable poll has shown anything but a Trump lead
in a long time.  Although the race will not be a landslide,
it should be a win for:                                                                                             TRUMP

Nevada – 6 Electoral votes

Some recent polls show Trump ahead, but I think the
combination of a strong ground organization and a
significant Latino population will give Nevada to:                                         CLINTON

North Carolina – 15 electoral votes

Touch and go for both candidates, but it is still the South
and therefore will go to:                                                                                      TRUMP

Ohio – 18 Electoral votes

As everyone probably knows, no Republican has won the
White House without winning Ohio.  He won’t win the
election, but Ohio will go to:                                                                             TRUMP

Utah – 6 Electoral Votes

Independent Evan McMullin might squeak past Trump
here, but probably not::                                                                                    TRUMP

 

SUMMARY

With the projections in the 10 Battleground States, the final totals may look like:

Trump Safe States                            159 Electoral Votes
Trump Battleground States             72 Electoral Votes

Trump Total                               231 Electoral Votes

Clinton Safe States                          272 Electoral Votes
Clinton Battleground States             35 electoral Votes

Clinton Total                              307 Electoral Votes

 

If not for James Comey’s ill-advised and poorly-timed (and possibly illegal) letter to Congress, Clinton would have won more easily, with an especially greater chance in North Carolina and Ohio.  Of course, if between the time I write this and election day, there is some resolution to the emails on Anthony Weiner’s computer, things could change, one way or the other.  But based on the vast number of emails to be examined, that seems unlikely.  Although one should never underestimate the lengths that Republicans will go to prevent a Hillary Clinton presidency, I nevertheless believe we will have our first woman President on January 20, 2017.