Political Blue Gene

 

November 6, 2018 – Fearless Forecasts

 

We begin with 2 thoughts that seem to be appropriate in 2018.

“…you can fool some of the people all of the time…”

–Attributed to Abraham Lincoln

“There’s a sucker born every minute.”

–Attributed to P.T. Barnum

 

One Important Note:

Everything is moving very fast in so many races every day, it becomes very difficult to accurately gauge what will happen on Election Day.  And after the debacle of 2016, only a fool would try to predict the outcome of this year’s elections.  So here goes:

Let’s start with the good news.

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Admittedly, I have not looked at these races on an individual, race-by-race basis.  However, all indications point to the Democrats taking control of the House.  While the Brett Kavanaugh hearings seemed to energize Trump’s core supporters, this seems to have become undone by the events of the last week – i.e., the Florida mail bomber and the maniac who killed 11 people at the Pittsburgh synagogue.  Many people were reminded of the damage that Trump has been doing to our country.

Democratic control of the House may not be by much (or it may), but even a one vote majority is enough to stop some of the more terrible things the current administration will try to foist upon this country.  And it will allow the Congress to do its job and begin investigating the rampant corruption (starting with the crook-in-chief).

GOVERNORS

36 of the 50 states are electing their governors in November.  While most will either re-elect sitting governors or install new governors from the same party as now, there are 11 contests where a current Republican governorship may become Democratic.  There does not appear to be any contest where the reverse is true (Democratic changing to Republican), although Independent and former Republican Bill Walker may be replaced by Republican Mike Dunleavy in Alaska.  These elections are especially important as reapportionment will occur after the 2020 census and the party in power gerrymanders its way to success in Congressional and legislative elections.

At least 7 of the 11 contested elections will be close, as follows:

Florida:    Hottest race in the country.  African-American Democratic Mayor Andrew Gillum vs. big time Trump supporter former Congressman Ron DeSantis.  If there is no or minimal hidden racist vote, Gillum will win for the Democrats. (I think he will.)

Georgia:   African-American Democratic legislator Stacey Abrams vs. Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp.  Massive voter suppression efforts by Kemp and Republicans may help Kemp retain this seat for the Republicans, but race could go either way.

Illinois:     Slam dunk win for Democrat J.B. Pritzker.

Iowa:       Democrat Fred Hubbell will unseat Republican incumbent Kim Reynolds.

Kansas:    Third candidate in the race gives Democrats a chance to defeat anti-immigrant (and undoubtedly racist) Kris Kobach in Alf Landon’s home state.  Unfortunately, Kansas is still soooo Republican, Kobach probably will win; but polling has it VERY close.

Maine:     There has been very little polling in this race, but Democratic Attorney General Janet Mills should have little problem defeating Republican businessman Shawn Moody to replace Incumbent and extremely conservative Republican Paul Lepage.

Michigan:  Democratic State Senator Gretchen Whitmer should defeat Republican Bill Schuette.

Nevada:   Democrat Steve Sisolak has a chance to beat someone with a big family name in Nevada politics, State Attorney General Adam Paul Laxalt, but it will be tough.  Laxalt uses his middle name because it is the same as his grandfather’s first name (former U.S. Senator Paul Laxalt).  Republican may have a slight edge.

New Mexico: In a contest between two members of Congress, Democrat Michelle Lujan
Grisham should be an easy winner over Republican Steve Pearce.

Ohio:       Close contest but Democrat Richard Cordray, former Director of the Federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau seems to have a very good chance to defeat former U.S. Senator, Republican Mike DeWine.  Despite Ohio’s recent history, I think the Democrat will squeak this one out.

Wisconsin:             Tea Party and now long-time Governor Scott Walker faces a tough
challenge from Democrat Tony Evers, State Superintendent of Public
Instruction.  There has not been a lot of polling done here.  I’m hoping
that Wisconsin voters have         finally had enough of Walker. I believe (hope?)
Evers will win.

In summary, I think Democrats may flip as many as 8 of these governorships out of the hands of Republicans.

 

U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGNS

Now, for the not-so-good news.

This year, there are 35 seats up for election.

24 are currently held by Democrats

9 are currently held by Republicans

2 are held by independents who caucus with the Democrats: Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Angus King in Maine.

The remaining seats divide as follows:  23 Democrats and 42 Republicans.

Here is how the 35 seats shape up:

Safe/Very Likely Democratic (21)              Safe/Very Likely Republican (7)

California (Dianne Feinstein)                    Mississippi (Roger Wicker)

Connecticut (Chris Murphy)                      Mississippi 2 (Cindy Hyde-Smith)

Delaware (Tom Carper)                          Nebraska (Deb Fischer)

Hawaii (Mazie Hirono)                            North Dakota (Kevin Cramer)

Maine (Angus King)*                              *Texas (Ted Cruz)

Maryland (Ben Cardin)                            Utah (Mitt Romney)

Massachusetts (Elizabeth Warren)            Wyoming (John Barrasso)

Michigan (Debbie Stabenow)

Minnesota 1 (Amy Klobuchar)

Minnesota 2 (Tim Smith)                         *Democrats are excited about

New Jersey (Robert Menendez)                Beto O’Rourke in Texas, but no

New Mexico (Martin Heinrich)                  poll has had him closer than 5 or

New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)                   6 points in weeks.

Ohio (Sherrod Brown)

Pennsylvania (Bob Casey)

Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse)

Vermont (Bernie Sanders)*

Virginia (Tim Kaine)

Washington (Maria Cantwell)

West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin)

*Independents caucus with Democrats

 

7  Contested Seats

Arizona – Open Seat, currently held by Republican Jeff Flake

Currently held by frequent Trump critic (but also someone who usually votes with Trump), Jeff Flake, this may be the best chance for the Democrats to capture a Republican seat.  Eventually, the changing demographics of Arizona will give Democrats a breakthrough.  I think this is the year:

Prediction:  KYRSTEN SINEMA PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

Florida – Bill Nelson, Democratic incumbent

Another very close election, with Governor Rick Scott the Republican candidate.  Most recent polling gives Nelson a very slight edge.  Who am I to disagree?

Prediction:  NELSON HOLDS SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

Indiana – Joe Donnelly, Democratic incumbent

Six years ago, Donnelly won this seat when Republicans nominated an extreme “tea party” candidate.  But Indiana is a very red state.

Prediction: MIKE BRAUN PICKS UP SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

Missouri –Claire McCaskill, Democrat incumbent

As was the case six years ago, McCaskill will have a very tough time holding onto her seat in another red state.  This is another one that is VERY CLOSE.  This prediction comes with a lot of hope.

Prediction:  DEMOCRAT MCCASKILL HOLDS SEAT

Montana – Jon Tester, Democrat Incumbent

This is the seat that Trump has targeted as the one he most wants the Republicans to win.  But Montana is an unusual state – very red in presidential elections, but more volatile in other statewide contests.  However, on Halloween, Libertarian candidate Rick Breckenridge dropped out of the race and endorsed strong Trump supporter, Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale.  This could change everything, or nothing.  For now, I will stick with my initial thoughts on this race.

Prediction:  DEMOCRAT TESTER HOLDS SEAT

Nevada – Dean Heller, Republican incumbent

Early on, this looked like a good chance for a Democratic pick-up for Congresswoman Jacky Rosen.  It is still possible.  It should be close.

Prediction:  REPUBLICAN HELLER HOLDS SEAT

Tennessee – Open Seat, currently held by Republican Bob Corker

In another very red state, Democrats are hoping for an upset.  Republicans have nominated a very right-wing Trumpite, Marsha Blackburn.  Democrats have the popular former governor, Phil Bredesen.  This one should be closer than most Tennessee elections.

Prediction:  BLACKBURN HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

 

FINAL PREDICTED TOTALS

Democrats win 23 seats

Republicans win 11 seats

Independents win 2 seats (and caucus with Democrats)

Senate will have:    46 Democrats

52 Republicans

2 Independents (who caucus with Democrats)

This gives Republicans an effective 52-48 majority, one better than what they have today.  Even in the unlikely event that Democrats win Nevada and Tennessee, Republicans will still hold a majority because of the Vice-President’s tie-breaking vote.  But considering that Democrats had so many, and Republicans had so few seats to defend, maintaining the status quo is not too bad a result.