Political Blue Gene

FEBRUARY 27, 2020

ALMOST TO SUPER TUESDAY

After the Democrats’ 4,335th or so debate on Tuesday, the clear winner so far has been Donald Trump.  Every poll taken in the past year says the same thing – the most important thing for Democrats is beating Trump.  Unfortunately, large numbers of people are voting for Bernie Sanders, the person with the worst or second-to-worst chance to actually reach that goal.

 

Although many voters are not choosing Sanders, in a crowded field, his core of supporters is strong enough to have much of the punditry anointing him as the presumptive nominee.  They see him as the Democrats’ 2020 version of Donald Trump in 2016:  a candidate with a strong base against a fractured field that cannot come together behind a candidate who might possibly win in November.  And they may be correct.  On Super Tuesday, Sanders probably will do well in a number of states (especially California and Texas).  With so many candidates in the race, it will only magnify Sanders’ support.  The only hope is for one candidate to do very well, even if that person does not do as well as Sanders, to emerge as THE alternative.  Personally, I am waiting for the South Carolina results before voting, hoping that the best alternative will become clear by Sunday morning.

 

A few random thoughts on the race:

 

• There are two things that give me some slight hope for a Sanders victory in November. First, his success thus far has been built on a strong grassroots organization, something that will be very helpful in the general election, too.  Second, I believe that Sanders appeals to some of the same people as Trump, disaffected people who feel powerless in today’s America.  It is somewhat reminiscent of 1968, when you would see cars with bumper stickers for Bobby Kennedy and then, after he was killed, those same cars would have bumper stickers for the person most unlike him, George Wallace.
• Bernie’s interview on 60 minutes was a disaster. Whether accurate or not, to most voters it will sound as if Bernie Sanders believes Castro did some good things and only incidentally was not a good person.
• Bye-bye Florida. And Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and…
• And that doesn’t even take into account what the Republicans will make of Bernie honeymooning in the Soviet Union and being a Democratic Communist, oops, Socialist. To the Republicans and many Americans, there will be no difference between socialist and communist.
• In the end, the election will be about Bernie Sanders, when it should be about Donald Trump. If the election is not about the horror in the White House, we lose.
• Four years ago, I compared Sanders to George McGovern, but I don’t think that is wholly accurate. Bernie is a much more dynamic personality and speaker.  McGovern was a really good man but pretty dull.  Bernie would win more than the one state that McGovern won, but a loss is still a loss.
• I always like the smartest person in the room. This year, that’s Pete Buttigieg.  Unfortunately, I believe this country is not ready to elect a gay president.  In Iowa, there were instances of people wanting their caucus votes back after they found out he was gay.  We can be sure the Republicans will not let anyone miss this piece of information before the election in November.  So sad.  Maybe in 4 or 8 years.
• Democrats often look to young, very smart leaders (see JFK, Clinton and Obama). Mayor Pete fits that description.  Republicans don’t like young and they certainly don’t care about smart (see Trump and George W. Bush).
• Joe Biden more than anyone else in the race, seems to show his age. Or at least he did so in the early debates and campaign events. While he has gotten better, it is what keeps him from connecting with younger voters.  It is definitely not too late, but as everyone says, he must win South Carolina.  He (and maybe everyone not supporting Sanders) needs for Biden to have a solid victory.
• Gayle King may have summed up one of Biden’s strongest attributes vs. Trump when she said he was “a gentleman”. Most people (even many of Trump’s supporters) abhor Trump’s behavior and are looking for civility in politics and society as a whole.
• A number of really good candidates either were not able to compete financially (such as Cory Booker and Michael Bennet) or have little chance to get the nomination. In this latter case, I am thinking particularly about Amy Klobuchar.  She would be a terrific candidate against Trump but does not have a realistic path to get the nomination.  But she would be a great Vice Presidential nominee.  I wonder, would Mike Pence trust himself to be on the same stage with her in a debate?  Or would he have to have his wife with him?

 

That’s it for now.  More when the spirit moves me.  Enjoy the show!