Political Blue Gene

This year, there are 33 seats up for election (there are other safe Republican seats up because of retirements, but this note only deals with the regular 33).

20 are currently held by Democrats
13 are currently held by Republicans

The remaining seats divide as follows:  33 Democrats and 32 Republicans and 2 Independents, who caucus with the Democrats.

Democrats need to win 15 seats to maintain a majority, including the Vice President as a tie-breaker in a 50-50 split.  Republicans need to win 19 seats to have a majority.

Here is how the 33 seats shape up:

Safe/Very Likely Democratic (11)               Safe/Very Likely Republican (16)

Delaware                                                Alabama

Illinois                                                    Alaska*

Massachusetts                                          Arkansas*

Michigan                                                 Idaho

Minnesota                                               Louisiana

New Hampshire                                       Maine

New Jersey                                             Mississippi

New Mexico                                             Montana*

Oregon                                                   Nebraska

Rhode Island                                           Oklahoma

Virginia                                                   South Carolina

South Dakota*

Tennessee

Texas

West Virginia*

Wyoming

*Indicates change of party winning seat

 

6  Contested Seats

Colorado

Cory Gardner (Rep) vs. Mark Udall (Inc. – Dem)

Gardner has been running ahead for a long time.

Prediction:  REPUBLICAN GARDNER TAKES SEAT

 

Georgia

A close race where Republican David Perdue is now running slightly ahead of Democrat Michelle Nunn.

Prediction:  PERDUE HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

 

Iowa

Perhaps the closest race in the country, between Republican Tea Partier Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley.  In spite of being generally pessimistic this year:

Prediction: BRALEY HOLDS SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

 

Kansas

Incumbent Republican Pat Roberts vs. Independent Republican Greg Orman has been very close for weeks, but I find it hard to believe that Roberts won’t win.  Even if Orman wins, he says he will caucus with the majority party, which in the next Senate will probably be Republicans.

Prediction:  ROBERTS HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

 

Kentucky

Democrats’ dreams of defeating Mitch McConnell with Alison Grimes are just that.

Prediction:  MCCONNELL HOLDS SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

 

North Carolina

This is another very difficult race to predict between Incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis, but being an optimist:

Prediction:  DEMOCRAT HAGAN HOLDS SEAT

 

FINAL PREDICTED TOTALS

Democrats win 13 seats
Republicans win 20 seats

Senate will have:
46 Democrats
52 Republicans
2 Independents (who caucus with Democrats)

This makes for an effective total of 48 Democrats and 52 Republicans. (But it could be as much as 54-46).

 

President Obama answered the excessive self-congratulatory and self-centered politics of the Paul Ryans, Mitt Romneys, and Tea Partiers who hold sway over today’s Republican Party with forceful and clear statements of how this country has triumphed over adversity and progressed from a small, experimental, slave-holding nation more than 200 years ago, to become the most powerful and important nation to have ever existed on the planet.

If there was one word in the speech that conveys his message, it was “together.”  We will not build the infrastructure needed in the 21^st century city by city or state by state, but as a unified whole.  We cannot leave the protection of the “vulnerable” and neediest to the good will of every state.  We must act together, as a nation.

We cannot expect every state to ensure the freedom and “pursuit of happiness” for every person without a national commitment.  If there had been no federal action, in some states there might still be segregation, laws against inter-racial marriage, no social security insurance to help people as they get older, no Medicare and certainly no promise of universal (or near-universal) health insurance.  One often hears people who oppose laws that benefit people who are unlike themselves say that “you cannot legislate morality.”  On the contrary, that is often the only way to bring it about.  As the President said, “We must be a source of hope to the poor, the sick, the marginalized, the victims of prejudice – not out of mere charity, but because …our time…requires the constant advance of…tolerance and opportunity; human dignity and justice.”

President Obama understands that we won two world wars by working together; that we won the Cold War by standing together when most needed; that we created the first great middle class by allowing unions to protect its worker members; that public education, public roads and transportation, consumer protection, health protection and so many other cornerstones of an advanced society resulted from laws that enhance all people, together.  As he said, these things “do not make us a nation of takers; they free us to take risks that make this country great.”

In his address he took stands for women’s rights, gay rights, voting rights, immigrants’ rights; for protecting our planet; and protecting our children.  He also acknowledged that progress is often incremental. But some progress is better than none at all.

There are many forces of ignorance and intolerance that will fight him at every step.  I hope that even the most backward-looking Republicans recognize that it is in their self-interest to compromise with the President and do what is right, no matter how much it hurts.

There they go again.  Just when you thought they couldn’t get much worse, the Republicans in the U.S. Congress, and other “leading” conservatives have, in the past few weeks, exhibited behavior that has given them the well-earned designation as the “Party of No,” the party that puts Americans at risk, and the party that exposes us to embarrassment in the rest of the world.  Here are four recent examples that defy logic and common sense.

On Tuesday, December 4, 2012, 38 Republicans voted against a United Nations treaty requiring two-thirds approval for ratification that will bring the rest of the world up to the standards already codified into law in the United States; namely, that people with disabilities have the same rights as people without disabilities.  The treaty was modeled on the U.S. law, the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, signed into law by Republican President George H.W. Bush.  Former Republican Senator and presidential candidate Bob Dole was on the Senate floor, urging his party to approve the treaty.  But 38 Republican Senators, following a ridiculous argument most vociferously put forward by Rick Santorum, decided that the treaty somehow would infringe on American sovereignty and that, as noted in the N.Y. Times, “United Nations bureaucrats would be empowered to make decisions about the needs of disabled children.”  Hard to believe that a majority of Republican senators still feel we should not be part of the U.N.  Obviously, these senators would have been happier when they could oppose President Wilson and the League of Nations.

At the end of 2012, Republicans in the House of Representatives did not vote on renewing the Violence Against Women Act because Majority Leader Eric Cantor objected to provisions that extended protections to Native American women.  I wonder if that was really his objection or if his opposition actually stemmed from the fact that the version of the bill overwhelmingly passed by the Senate extends domestic violence protection to LGBT individuals and undocumented immigrants, as well as Native Americans.  Fortunately, it now appears that there may be enough Republicans in the House to pass the bill in the new Congress, once the Senate passes it again.  Aren’t you glad the Republicans haven’t been waging a war on women?

At the end of 2012, the Senate passed a bill authorizing $60 billion in relief aid for victims of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey and New York.  Speaker Boehner, however, refused to allow the bill to come to the floor of the House for a vote.  After numerous attacks from Republicans and Democrats in those two states, led by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie calling Speaker Boehner and House Republicans “disgraceful,” the House finally passed an approximately $9 billion package for expanded flood relief, with a promise to vote on the other $51 billion on January 15.  Once again, Republicans in the House put their obsessive goal of reducing government above the needs of the people.

Finally (for now), we have that bastion of modern conservatism, the National Rifle Association.  The NRA used to be an organization interested in gun safety and the education of Americans in the safe and proper use of firearms.  No more.  Their outrageous suggestion to turn every school in America into an armed camp, defies logic and intelligence.  Unless, of course, you view the world as best served when we all behave as they did in Tombstone in the late 1800’s.  Yup, let ‘em shoot it out to decide any and all disputes.  To the NRA, life should be a B-movie western from the 1930’s.

One would think that after losing the Presidential election, having fewer seats in the Senate and the House, and having more Americans vote for Democratic House candidates than Republican ones (Republicans retained their House majority because of effective gerrymandering), Republicans might be open to ideas that would make them more appealing to the majority of Americans.  One, however, would be wrong.

1. In a recent speech to the conservative Federalist Society, the New York Times reported that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito defended the Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling, saying that “Surely the idea that the First Amendment protects only certain privileged voices should be disturbing to anybody who believes in free speech” and that “The question is whether speech that goes to the very heart of government should be limited to certain preferred corporations; namely media corporations.” I guess Alito never heard of freedom of the press and he does not understand that in today’s world, media corporations often operate our free press.  Even if we don’t like what FOX News, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, etc. have to say, they report the news and are protected by our commitment to freedom of the press.  Oil companies report nothing but profits (and very occasionally losses) and are not, by any stretch of the imagination, members of the press.
2. Hard to believe, but the 2016 presidential campaign has already begun. The potential Republican candidates are almost too many to mention.  They certainly include Ryan, Rubio, Christie, Jindal, Jeb Bush, Santorum, Rand Paul, Huckabee, Haley, Cain (Herman, not Matt), and who knows how many others.On the Democratic side, all probably depends on Hillary Clinton, although she will be 69 years old if she takes office in 2017, a year younger than Ronald Reagan was when he took office in 1981.  Joe Biden, another possibility, will be 74, so his candidacy seems unlikely.  Others frequently mentioned are New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley.  If Hillary runs, I would hope the field will clear itself to avoid a potentially damaging primary campaign.  It is hard to imagine anyone beating her for the nomination in 2016.

Democrats in California have a rare opportunity to accomplish a great deal for the State.  As you undoubtedly know, State government is now totally controlled by the Democrats.  A Democrat is Governor and two-thirds of the members of each house of the Legislature are Democrats.  While some argue for caution, I would argue for boldness.

In 2009, Democrats in the U.S. Congress held a majority in the House of Representatives and a filibuster-proof 60 votes in the Senate.  But they did not take full advantage of the opportunity, and after the death of Ted Kennedy, the 60 vote majority quickly disappeared.  The California opportunity does not come along very often.  The last time Democrats held the Governorship and two-thirds of both houses of the legislature was 130 years ago.  There is no reason to think the current situation will last very long.

During the 1960 campaign for President, when asked why he wanted to be President, John Kennedy famously said, “Because that’s where the power is.”  Democrats have the power and should use it.  If the situation were reversed, you can be sure the Republicans would be repealing every tax in sight and dismantling, or at least crippling, every program that helps people in need.  It is time to improve education from pre-school through college.  Repairing and maintaining our physical and technological infrastructure is necessary to attract and retain businesses and jobs.  Some of the social programs that have been lost to budget constraints over the past few years should be re-instated, on at least a moderate level.  We should make it easier to pass school parcel taxes and other local tax measures by lowering the passing threshold below two-thirds.  And assuring the success of Obamacare in California will only make us healthier and stronger.  While the views of the minority should be respected and taken into consideration, lest Democrats be seen as overreaching and overtaxing, the voters have said that government can help people and help the State.  Democrats must not be afraid to listen to the voters.

It has been abundantly clear that some of the venom directed towards President Obama since he took office is motivated by deep racist feelings among some people in this country.  This does not mean that everyone who dislikes the President and/or his policies does so because they are racists.  However, racism has been demonstrated over and over again by the crude “jokes” and cartoons published by some local Republicans in various parts of the country, as well as comments for years from right wing talk show hosts, and not-too-subtle comments during the recent campaign from Romney surrogates like John Sununu that the President was “lazy” and more interested in playing basketball than doing the work of a president.  It also manifested itself when a Congressman shouted out at the President, “you lie,” during an address to Congress.  I strongly doubt that he would have done that to a white president.

An African-American friend of mine who is very politically savvy and sophisticated recently raised an issue about the President’s first term in office.  He felt that President Obama acted and reacted at various times as the groundbreaking figure that he is.  He compared the President to Jackie Robinson who, when he began his major league career, was on the receiving end of constant death threats and horrific racist insults.  It has been well documented how Robinson knew he had to “turn the other cheek” to every one of these.  He had to show almost superhuman self-control and patience.  Somehow he managed to rise above the haters and stay there.  His stoicism, humanity and dignity made it possible for much of a skeptical white America to accept him and, therefore, accept a future that included African-American, Latino and Asian ballplayers, even if they still didn’t like it.

Similarly, President Obama did not react to the racism and hate.  My friend believes that it was important that the President not be perceived as an “angry Black man.”  The result may have been a misperception of the President as weak, particularly in his dealings with Congress.  As he begins his second term there will be no such constraints on President Obama.  He will never be a hot-headed man with a quick trigger for a temper.  That is not who he is.  But I expect he will be more aggressive in his dealings with the bullies who are the Republican leaders in the House and Senate and who pass themselves off as the “loyal opposition.”  They are certainly the opposition, but there is little that is loyal about them, except perhaps to their own sense of entitlement to power.  Perhaps if President Obama was Jackie Robinson in his first term, he will be Curt Flood in his second.

Mitt Romney’s pollster did him a terrible disservice.  Or perhaps it was the campaign manager whose decision served the candidate so poorly.

Reports have come out that Romney was “shellshocked” that he had lost.  This should never have happened.  Every election poll is based on certain turnout assumptions.  These assumptions create what is usually known as “likely voters.”  However, there are numerous ways to define who a likely voter is.  Polling for the Romney campaign was based on assumptions that the percentages of the electorate, when compared to 2008, would have more white men and fewer African-American, Latino, Asian and young voters.  It was the pollster’s responsibility to tell his client that he wins if these assumptions prove correct.  Romney should have also been made aware that he could very well lose if these assumptions were wrong.  The candidate then goes into the election well-armed emotionally and intellectually if he (or she, as the case may be) knows what the assumptions are and what happens under various turnout scenarios.  This was especially true this year, when the vast majority of the reliable public polls all had Obama winning most of the battleground states and therefore, the election.  There was an unfounded smugness to Republican operatives and the Romney campaign because of their incorrect assumptions.  In addition, no one knows how many incorrect decisions were made by the campaign because of these assumptions.

I do not know Mitt Romney’s campaign manager or any of the other people around Governor Romney.  However, I do know that there are campaign managers who believe that they can not only manipulate the voters, but they can also manipulate their clients, the candidates, for “their own good.”  Perhaps that is what happened here.  Perhaps the campaign manager decided that Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan would be better campaigners if they had total confidence that they would win.  Hence, the decision not to give the candidates all the information that was available, including how they might lose.  Or perhaps the campaign manager was just so convinced of his own brilliance that he did not even entertain the possibility that he might be wrong.  Either way, as I said before, someone did Mitt Romney a terrible disservice.

This year, there are 33 seats up for election.
21 are currently held by Democrats
10 are currently held by Republicans
2 are held by independents who caucus with the Democrats: Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Joe Lieberman in Connecticut (Lieberman is retiring).

The remaining seats divide as follows:  30 Democrats and 37 Republicans.

Democrats need to win 21 seats to have a majority.  Republicans need to win 14 seats to have a majority (one less in each case if they have the Vice Presidency).

Here is how the 33 seats shape up:

Safe/Very Likely Democratic (16)               Safe/Very Likely Republican (5)

California (Dianne Feinstein)                     Mississippi (Roger Wicker)

Delaware (Tom Carper)                            Tennessee (Bob Corker)

Florida (Bill Nelson)                                  Texas (Ted Cruz)

Hawaii (Mazie Hirono)                              Utah (Orrin Hatch)

Maine (Angus King)*                                Wyoming (John Barrasso)

Maryland (Ben Cardin)

Michigan (Debbie Stabenow)

Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar)

New Jersey (Robert Menendez)

New Mexico (Martin Heinrich)

New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)

Pennsylvania (Bob Casey)

Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse)

Vermont (Bernie Sanders)*

Washington (Maria Cantwell)

West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

*Independents caucus with Democrats

 

12  Contested Seats

Arizona – Open Seat, currently held by Republican John Kyl

Earlier in the fall, this looked like a sure win for Republican Jeff Flake, but the changing demographics of Arizona has helped make this a contest that Democrat Richard Carmona might just win; but Flake seems to be surging at the end and it is hard to bet against Republicans in Arizona. So, with less trepidation than I would have had a few days ago:

Prediction:  REPUBLICAN FLAKE HOLDS SEAT

 

Connecticut – Open Seat, currently held by Joe Lieberman

For a long time, it looked like Republican Linda McMahon had a real shot at this seat.  However, in recent weeks, Democrat Chris Murphy has opened up a lead.

Prediction:  DEMOCRAT MURPHY HOLDS SEAT

 

Indiana – Open Seat, currently held by Republican Richard Lugar

Tea Partier Richard Mourdock defeated long-time Senator Richard Lugar in the primary.  As you may know, in a recent debate, Mourdock said that a pregnancy resulting from rape was “God’s will.”  Democrats and Joe Donnelly were very glad he said this.

Prediction: JOE DONNELLY PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

 

Massachusetts – Scott Brown, Republican incumbent

This had been a very close election, and in some ways still is.  However, most reliable (and some not so reliable) polls in the past few weeks have given Democrat Elizabeth Warren a slight lead.

Prediction:  ELIZABETH WARREN PICKS UP SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

 

Missouri –Claire McCaskill, Democrat incumbent

Todd Akin was the Republican who Claire McCaskill wanted to run against.  At first, this still looked like a good bet for a Republican pick up.  However, after Akin talked about “legitimate rape” and how a woman can magically will her body to not get pregnant when raped, McCaskill looked very smart.

Prediction:  MCCASKILL HOLDS SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

 

Montana – Jon Tester, Democrat Incumbent

This is probably the most difficult Senate seat to predict.  However, even a usually Republican-leaning pollster recently had Tester ahead by 1% over Republican Denny Rehberg.  I am tossing a coin.

Prediction:  DEMOCRAT TESTER HOLDS SEAT

 

Nebraska – Open Seat, currently held by Democrat Ben Nelson

For the longest time, this looked like the surest thing for a Republican pick-up.  Recently, however, there seems to be rumblings that former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey has made this into a race.  But even if true, it seems to be too little, too late.

Prediction:  DEB FISCHER PICKS UP SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

 

Nevada – Dean Heller, Republican incumbent

Early on, this looked like a good chance for a Democratic pick-up.  However, a House ethics investigation of Democrat Shelley Berkley has turned this into a pretty easy win for Heller.

Prediction:  REPUBLICAN HELLER HOLDS SEAT

 

North Dakota – Open seat, currently held by Democrat Kent Conrad

Democrat Heidi Heitkamp has turned this into a potentially tight contest, but it seems doubtful she can overcome Rick Berg’s lead, but she could surprise us.

Prediction:  BERG PICKS UP SEAT FOR REPUBLICANS

 

Ohio – Sherrod Brown, Democratic incumbent

Republicans had targeted this seat, but Brown has held a steady lead for some time.

Prediction:  DEMOCRAT BROWN HOLDS SEAT

 

Virginia – Open seat; currently held by Democrat Jim Webb

This is another extremely close and definite toss-up election between Republican, former Senator George Allen and Democrat, former Governor Tim Kaine.  Polls have had this very close since the beginning, although most reliable ones in recent days give Kaine a slight edge.

Prediction:  DEMOCRAT KAINE HOLDS SEAT

 

Wisconsin – Open seat, currently held by Democrat Herb Kohl

This is the race between former Governor Tommy Thompson and Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin.  If elected, Baldwin would be the first openly Lesbian member of the U.S. Senate.  As you would expect in today’s Wisconsin, this has been another very close race.  It appears that Baldwin may have a slight edge, but it is hard to assess how much support she may lose because of homophobia.  Nonetheless…

Prediction:  BALDWIN HOLDS SEAT FOR DEMOCRATS

 

FINAL PREDICTED TOTALS

Democrats win 22 seats
Republicans win 9 seats
Independents win 2 seats (and caucus with Democrats)

Senate will have:
52 Democrats
46 Republicans
2 Independents (who caucus with Democrats)

This gives Democrats an effective 54-46 majority.  Even in the unlikely event that Republicans win Indiana, Montana, Virginia and Wisconsin, Democrats will still hold a majority because of the Vice-President’s tie-breaking vote.

For this last election projection, I will look at each state individually.  Someone recently asked for my track record predicting the presidential races.  They are pretty good, although I find this year much more difficult to predict.  Here are my past results for the 50 states and the District of Columbia:

2008: Missed 1 state (Indiana – predicted for McCain, went to Obama)

2004: Missed 1 state (Ohio – predicted for Kerry, went to Bush)

2000: Missed 1 or 2 states: (New Hampshire – predicted for Gore, went to Bush;
Florida predicted for Gore…)

Bottom Line this year:  Obama will be re-elected.

Romney seems pretty well assured of receiving 191 electoral votes from these states:  Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Obama seems pretty well assured of receiving 237 electoral votes from California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and the District of Columbia.  (In spite of the Romney campaign making noises about and throwing late money into Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, he has little chance to win those states.  Obama’s top advisor, David Axelrod, said he would shave off his 40-year-old mustache on national television if Romney wins any 1 of those 3 states.)

Battleground States

Colorado – 9 Electoral votes

This has been extremely close since the beginning, with some
polls having Obama ahead, some having Romney ahead, some
having them tied, but the lead rarely more than a point or two.
This is still a true toss-up, but I will go with: OBAMA

Florida – 29 Electoral votes

Most polls in the past couple of weeks either have Romney with
a slight lead, the race being tied, or Obama with a point or
two lead.  However, voter suppression efforts will have done
enough to clinch a race that might anyway have been won by: ROMNEY

Iowa – 6 electoral Votes

There has not been a reputable poll that has not shown an
Obama lead in weeks. Although the race will not be a landslide,
it should be a win for: OBAMA

Nevada – 6 Electoral votes

Like Iowa, there has been no real evidence of Romney
overtaking the President. This should be a win for: OBAMA

New Hampshire – 4 Electoral Votes

Another very close race, with no clear leader.  I got this one
wrong in 2000, and may get it wrong again, but I am going with: OBAMA

North Carolina – 15 electoral votes

Romney pulled ahead here after the first debate and has held
that lead in most polls.  This should be fairly easy for: ROMNEY

Ohio – 18 Electoral votes

As everyone probably knows, this is the state that is the one
most people think Romney must win if he is to win the election.
No Republican has won the White House without winning
Ohio.  But the strength of the auto industry and legal efforts
to blunt Republicans’ voter suppression tactics, have kept
Obama ahead in virtually every reliable poll here for weeks.
Although the leads are not great, it seems likely that Ohio will go to:  OBAMA

Virginia – 13 Electoral votes

Like Colorado and New Hampshire, Virginia is too close to call.
But that won’t stop me.  Northern Virginia is Democratic,
Southern Virginia is Republican.  Polls have been very close,
but I think this will be a repeat of 2008, and won by: OBAMA

Wisconsin – 10 Electoral Votes

Like Iowa and Nevada, polls in Wisconsin have been close, but
Obama has been ahead here for weeks.  There is no real reason
to think this won’t be won by: OBAMA

 

SUMMARY

With the projections in the 9 Battleground States, the final totals may look like:

Romney Safe States                      191 Electoral Votes
Romney Battleground States           44 Electoral Votes

Romney Total                      235 Electoral Votes

Obama Safe States                       237 Electoral Votes
Obama Battleground States             66 electoral Votes

Obama Total                        303 Electoral Votes

Obama’s base of support has held reasonably well.  He will lose some states he won four years ago, like Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina.  The election could be closer, or Obama could win bigger.  If Romney manages to win Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire, he would still have to win either Wisconsin or Ohio, or a combination of Iowa and Nevada to win the election.  I think it is more likely that Obama wins Colorado, Virginia and/or New Hampshire.  I think the scenarios favoring Romney are unlikely, but watch results from the battleground states and you will know who will win the election.  I believe it will be President Obama.